The Boiling Frog

The Strange Death Of Democratic England

2012-01-30T12:55:00.000Z

Whilst Cameron is poncing about at the latest European Council meeting, trying to pretend to his party that his non-veto was a veto and he isn't backtracking, Conservative Home has further evidence of the sharply declining Tory party membership.

Depressing reading I'm sure it is for most Tories (except Cameron), Adrian Hilton's article is a rather apt analogy for the political process as a whole, as he lays bare the extent of decline in party membership.

Referring to Beaconsfield " the Tory Premier League historic and prestigious seat of Disraeli", he illustrates the decline of membership by the graph above and writes:

This pattern of decline is in evidence in just about every Conservative association the length and breadth of the country. Beaconsfield can still glory in having the second-highest number of members of any association, but the fact remains that this represents a loss of almost 5000 paid-up supporters (76%) over the period I’ve been a member, and the reduction continues at the rate of about 100 a year. But more pressing even than the likelihood of extinction within a decade is that, on present rates of fund-raising and income, the association is projected this year to record its first ever financial loss.

The flight of members then is so acute that even the 'wealthy Beaconsfield Conservative Association' is unable to cover its costs (other than by mortgaging assets). This crisis in membership therefore, argues Hilton, really ought to be a priority concern as the threat is now existential.

So what is the cause of the 'alarming rate of decline'. Well Hilton has a theory which in my view not only applies to the Tories but the entire political system:

...there was a time when being a member of the Conservative Party was an active democratic pursuit – we could freely select parliamentary candidates, propose motions for conference and even participate in debates from the floor. It was a festival of genuine political participation: we didn’t all agree, and neither did we have to pretend to: democracy is messy...

Sadly, all of these processes are now controlled by the centralised oligarchy, and members are left with the façade of engagement. Candidates are imposed, selections are rigged, and the annual conference is no longer a vibrant celebration of democracy with halls packed to standing: it is a technocratic rally to demagoguery, and a poorly-attended one at that (at least by Party members). No contentious "big issues" are discussed or debated... It is little more than window-dressing and sophistry for mass media consumption....

Replace the words 'Conservative Party' with 'Labour' or 'Lib Dems' and you wouldn't have to re-write much, if any at all, and replace with words like 'MP's' or 'government' or 'local councils' etc and the sentiments still apply - in spades.

"Little more than window dressing and sophistry for mass media consumption" summed up the 2010 election perfectly, with contentious "big issues" not being discussed nor debated as demonstrated so clearly.

As the article makes clear 'on the ground' Tories are being treated with absolute contempt, yet that is a malaise which infiltrates everywhere.

Under Cameron, the Conservative Party has become increasingly centralised, top-down and anti-democratic... why would hard-working, intelligent and highly educated [sic] Conservative Party members put up with this?

Or indeed us voters in general. The article concludes that despite Cameron's empty rhetoric of returning power...

"...from the state to citizens; from the government to parliament; from Whitehall to communities. From Brussels to Britain; from judges to the people; from bureaucracy to democracy".

Precisely the opposite has happened:

Under Cameron, the Conservative Party has become increasingly centralised, top-down and anti-democratic.

And, more sinisterly:

But, as sure as night follows day, this will lead to the state funding of political parties. As I say, it appears almost purposeful.

Cameron's party is the perfect analogy of our current political climate; centralised and contemptuous of those it supposedly represents. Interestingly the Tory grassroots' reaction to it's party's ever increasingly anti-democratic nature has been one of apathy (my emphasis):

The vast majority seem passively content to permit their memberships to lapse, often citing (if asked) some generalised disillusionment with the lack of Tory ‘robustness’ – whether in government or opposition.

We are contending more with incremental indifference than forthright objection, and no number of polite letters or coaxing phone calls seem to persuade them to reconsider.

...members are left with an apparently unbridgeable epistemic distance between themselves and the Party Chairman, and so they fade away.

A mood reflected by the ever lower turnouts in elections, the electorate like the Tory members are retreating from a system that no longer reflects their views nor cares. But the sad truth is we simply cannot sustain a political situation where political views can no longer be expressed, in a purposeful (and peaceful) manner, indefinitely.

We live in dangerous times.

I'm Not Sure Whether To Laugh Or Cry

2012-01-27T15:11:00.003Z

"MP's have little to do" wails Jack Straw (my emphasis):

"The government is running dry of legislation from its programme to put before MPs.
"So desperate have they been to manufacture activity that ordinary bills that could and should go into a public bill committee where they can properly be examined line-by-line are now to have all their stages on the floor - a procedure normally reserved for bills of great constitutional importance.

"I can rarely recall a time when the business of the Commons has been so light..."

There's, obviously, a very good reason why this is the case but neither, unsurprisingly, Jack Straw nor the BBC are willing to highlight it.

We Will Remember Them

2012-01-25T20:10:00.002Z

The Telegraph reports that the EU wants the "digital right to be forgotten":

Embarrassing, inaccurate or simply personal data will have to be deleted from the internet and company databases if consumers ask, under a new set of European laws.

The move will mean that social networks such as Facebook or Twitter will have to comply with users' requests to delete everything they have ever published about themselves online. It will also mean that consumers will be able to force companies that hold data about them, such as for Tesco's Clubcard, to remove it.

Naturally it being the Telegraph and all matters EU this isn't actually recent news. The EU have been keen to do this for some time. Eager to update the 1995 Data Protection Directive (95/46/EC), here's the EU Commission's paper in 2010 (page 9):

"...clarifying the so-called ‘right to be forgotten’, i.e. the right of individuals to have their data no longer processed and deleted when they are no longer needed for legitimate purposes. This is the case, for example, when processing is based on the person’s consent and when he or she withdraws consent or when the storage period has expired;"

And from a "EU data protection reform – frequently asked questions":

For example, there should be a "right to be forgotten," which means that individuals should have the right to have their data fully removed when it is no longer needed for the purposes for which it was collected. People who want to delete profiles on social networking sites should be able to rely on the service provider to remove personal data, such as photos, completely.

Similarly, users should know and understand about how their internet use is being monitored for the purposes of behavioural advertising. For example, people should be aware when online retailers use previously viewed web sites as a basis to make product suggestions.

It is also important that individuals are informed when their data has been unlawfully accessed, altered or destroyed by unauthorised persons. The Commission is therefore considering extending the obligation to notify personal data breaches beyond the currently covered telecommunications sector to other areas, such as the financial industry.

And the reason the EU is keen on this is relatively simple, it allows another power grab which leads onto more regulation of the internet, dressed up as 'looking after our interests', as well as another important persuasive factor:

The changes...also include a new EU power to fine companies up to 2 per cent of their global turnover if they breach the rules.

More potential coffers in the kitty, how convenient.

But despite this, going by the comments under the Telegraph article the EU move appears to be depressingly popular - "at last the EU does something useful" is a common one. The irony of complaining about lack of privacy on the internet by...er...posting a comment on the internet appears to be lost; epitomised by this gem (click to enlarge):

One wonders why you'd complain about internet privacy when voluntarily signing up to a 'social networking' website where the fundamental business model is based on sharing information.

Then there's the practicalities - one man's privacy is another's free speech. What if you want to as an example, years later, erase a photograph of yourself on Facebook being embarrassingly drunk but the other chap in the picture finds it highly amusing and wants to retain it? Whose rights come first?

What if you're on a protest and photographed by a newspaper who then advertises their story on Facebook. Should you be able to insist Facebook remove the picture? This would surely be tantamount to censorship. And we all know where these kind of 'helpful' laws' eventually end up:

Wikipedia is under a censorship attack by a convicted murderer who is invoking Germany’s privacy laws in a bid to remove references to his killing of a Bavarian actor in 1990.

And there's the technicalities. Is it possible to request that every bit of data that might identify you is erased? For example removing IP addresses, logs and timestamps? The list would be endless and is impossible to enforce. What about demanding that even your request for deletion gets deleted?

In summary, what we have is an unelected and unaccountable Government body wanting to regulate the internet, and thus by implication free speech, on the pretext of our own protection. That, history tells us, never leads to anywhere good.

Disability Benefits

2012-01-25T12:27:00.004Z

Although I have a vested interest in the Government's Welfare reforms (Mrs TBF is disabled), for various reasons I've been rather reluctant to comment on them here.

In the main though I agree with many of the sentiments expressed here by Oliver Lewis at the Spectator. Like him, I cautiously welcome them albeit with some concerns. The welfare system does desperately need reforming and Iain Duncan Smith appears to be trying to make a decent fist of it with due consideration to the disabled community:

In fact, despite Polly Toynbee's claims, as far as I can see, the government has been cautious and sensible about making sure these reforms do right by the disabled community. Starting from 2013, it expects the process of examining every claimant to take up to three years. It has engaged with disabled groups, amended proposals and recently agreed to halve the time that seriously ill or disabled people will have to wait to receive PIP – to three months instead of six – a massive improvement, especially for cancer patients. The Welfare Reform Minister, Lord Freud, has also proposed an amendment allowing disabled people living in care homes to keep payments worth up to £51 per week.

Undoubtedly, due to the nature of bureaucracy, some will be wronged - thus making the headlines, it's inevitable. But a Government has a duty not only to look after the weakest in society but a duty also to spend taxpayer's money wisely.

Such contradictions and subtleties though escape the likes of Polly Toynbee, which the Spectator, in its article links to. To her life is black and white instead of the shades of grey that it really is. It's one of the reasons I've tried to leave this subject well alone - it's an emotive subject which will reduced down to a narrative of 'nasty cuts' and 'evil Tories' and 'right wingers' against instead those nice cuddly Labour left wingers. Despite all their faults, I doubt very much any MP, regardless of party or political persuasion, is callous enough to want to deliberately send disabled children into abject poverty.

One wonders, reading Polly's rather ironically hate filled article whether it even crossed her mind that Cameron knows exactly what it's like to look after someone who's disabled.

How Apt

2012-01-23T08:59:00.003Z

According to the Telegraph, Parliament could be sold off as part of radical proposals to tackle the building's subsidence:

Radical proposals are being considered as to how to tackle the long-term problem of the Palace of Westminster’s subsidence, which has already caused Big Ben’s clock tower to lean 18ins from the vertical.
Among the ideas is one for Parliament to be sold off to developers, possibly from foreign countries such as Russia or China, which could raise an estimated £500million.

There's nothing more apt for the building that's no longer fit for purpose in every sense than to sell it off to foreigners

A Waste Of Space

2012-01-22T15:23:00.003Z

Underdogs Bite Upwards highlights a Daily Mail article showing (photoshopped) pictures of children smoking. But as one of his commentators points out the Daily Mail is 2 months behind - and depressingly that's an improvement - only 2 months? We've been here before, sometimes it's taken nearly a year.

Not just on news, but right across the board the MSM is failing. Seriously, what's the point of newspapers?

Celebrating The Rebellion

2012-01-22T12:35:00.008Z

One of the consequences of the smoking ban is that the gents' toilets in sports stadiums, particularly football grounds, have become the equivalent of bike sheds at schools - somewhere to go for a 'crafty half-time fag'. Completely illegal of course but often the stewards take the view that they would be significantly outnumbered in a confined space if they raised an objection, so they leave well alone.

Usually, in my experience, most who use the toilets are ok with the situation - probably because the reason for a large number of us being there is to empty our bladders as a consequence of a consumption of copious alcoholic beverages. A complaint on health issues would be highly improper.

But... you always get one. And so it proved yesterday - the classic father and 'think of the kids' complaint. Which would all be plausible if said kid didn't look like he ate too much and also decided not to move about a lot. Needless to say the father was left in doubt regarding the general sentiment.

Anyway the point of this post is a tribute to classic British obstinacy. The Government may like to tell us what to do but the power resides with us - we only have to choose to use it.

Update: Just spotted this over at the Filthy Engineer's blog

Dehumanising The Victim Makes Things Simpler...

2012-01-20T23:23:00.003Z

Richard North reminds us that it's the 70th of the Wannsee Conference.

Above is an excerpt from the very unsettling BBC film Conspiracy based on the infamous meeting, which vividly illustrates that people's lives were reduced to that of numbers and 'Dilbert like corporate speak'.

It can, and will happen again...

How To Report The News

2012-01-18T16:53:00.006Z

Sometimes I find Charlie Brooker a little sanctimonious, but his early series of BBC's Newswipe resonates completely with me regarding MSM news reporting. Here's a great example:

Can He Wire A Plug?

2012-01-17T18:33:00.009Z

I've never met Tory MEP Dan Hannan but going by his Telegraph blog I have the impression he's a bright and well-read chap. But I also get the impression that he indulges in convoluted intellectual gymnastics that, as a guess, is probably necessary as a result of being a member of the Tory party which as a consequence presents him with contradictions. This leaves the unfortunate, maybe accurate, view of 'yes he's bright but can he wire a plug' - i.e. does his common sense often elude him?

And so it's with these thoughts in mind I read his latest blog piece which argues against the breakup of the United Kingdom in light of a possible Scottish referendum on independence. Whilst I have some sympathy with the view that a breakup would largely be a bad thing, it's the following passage that caught my eye:

What’s so special about ‘the UK as a whole’? Why is it worth keeping? Well, look at what we have achieved together. Centuries of unbroken parliamentary democracy. No revolutions, no dictatorships, no invasions. Secure property rights and an independent judiciary. Armed forces that are respected around the world. Religious pluralism. Moderate and democratic political parties. If you think these things can be taken for granted, watch what is about to happen in some eurozone states.

It's hard to know where to start. Apparently we have achieved "centuries of unbroken parliamentary democracy". As one of the authors of the book the Plan - in his words an attempt to renew Britain's democracy - this seems a rather odd statement to make to say the least. Is Hannan really suggesting that omitting half the UK's population from having the right to vote until 1918 or that full universal suffrage wasn't achieved until 1928, or that the unelected House of Lords had the same powers as the 'elected' Commons until 1911 or indeed that the rotten borough of Old Sarum which existed in the 19th Century constitutes a "centuries old parliamentary democracy"? If so, one has to wonder what version of democracy Hannan believes in.

But even by Hannan's established Parliamentary democratic terms, leaving aside the flaws in the basic principles of representative democracy, we can only argue that the UK's system of 'parliamentary democracy' has only ever really existed between 1928 and 1973 (when we joined the EEC).

But even this is not enough. If we indeed argue that genuine democracy existed in those short 45 years - this is undermined by the fact that under a genuine democracy, we'd never would have joined the EEC in the first place. In 1970 only 15% of people approved of EEC membership and joining never cropped up in the 1970 election as an issue. However just 2 weeks after being elected Heath began negotiations for entry with no obvious clear mandate. A wonderful example of 'parliamentary democracy'.

Hannan then states that we've had "no dictatorships". Really? Presumably being fair when Hannan says 'centuries', he's not going back as far as the mid 17th Century. However since 1973 that is precisely what we have had in effect. The Oxford dictionary lists a dictatorship as:

Absolute authority in any sphere.

We cannot elect the EU Commission nor throw Barroso nor Rumpy Pumpy out of office or reverse the overwhelming laws that emanate from Brussels. Some democracy - it certainly looks like a form of dictatorship to me.

Then Hannan says:

Armed forces that are respected around the world.

Would these be the same armed forces that lost in Iraq, were humiliated by the Iranians and can't even run our own aircraft carriers.

And, laughably, we should be proud of parliamentary democracy because we have:

Moderate and democratic political parties...

These would be the same 'democratic' political parties where there is no difference between them on major policy issues, such as EU membership, taxation or climate change (to name just a few), where breaking manifesto promises is a given, where every party exploits taxpayers money for expenses. Or where Parliamentary parties are selecting candidates on any criteria far removed from being democratic. As Witterings from Witney rightly says it's a democratic dictatorship

Hannan's loyalty to his party is blinding him to the obvious contradictions of his position - a perfect example of everything that is wrong with how we are currently governed.

Slow On The Uptake

2012-01-16T13:33:00.007Z

When I spotted this story in today's Daily Mail, it sounded very familiar. And so it was - it was picked up by Captain Ranty in March 2011.

So there you have it, paid MSM journalists recycling old news that was highlighted by unpaid bloggers nearly a year ago.

The MSM's purpose in life is...?

Referendums And Hypocrisy

2012-01-09T23:59:00.002Z

The Daily Telegraph has an article by Labour MP Douglas Alexander criticising Alex Salmond's reluctance to go for a Scottish independence referendum. The sheer arrogance and hypocrisy in the piece that pours from every paragraph from Alexander is enough to send me to bed with industrial quantities of ACE inhibitors. Here's a selection of quotes:

Everyone knows an independence referendum is coming, but for the moment only one man knows when. Alex Salmond is determined to delay for one simple reason: despite all his bluster, he fears the verdict of the Scottish people.

And:

In 2007, the SNP became the Government of Scotland, but in the four years of their first Parliamentary term they chose not to present a bill bringing forward a referendum. Only in the final months of that Parliament, in February 2011, did they publish a consultation which pledged an immediate referendum – a position they have subsequently rowed back from.

Laughably he then invokes the manifesto promise argument:

Last May, the SNP was elected on a manifesto that promised a referendum....

Funnily enough Douglas Alexander was elected on a manifesto promise too in 2005...but hey nevermind inconvenient facts. He continues:

No credible explanation has yet been offered to account for the delay – presumably because it simply reflects the SNP’s fear of the Scottish’s people’s answer. Only this weekend, an Ipsos Mori poll found support for Scottish independence at 29 per cent, against 54 per cent who want to remain part of the UK.

Oh now we're using polling evidence to criticise Alex Salmond for fearing that he will lose - doesn't that sound familiar? Still, self awareness doesn't appear to be his strong point - but on he rumbles regardless:

I have never feared the verdict of the Scottish people. As Johann Lamont, the new Scottish Labour leader, said yesterday, we want the referendum to be held as quickly as possible.

Never feared the verdict of the Scottish people eh? Well I beg to differ, guess, no really guess, how Mr Alexander voted regarding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty:

Yep, he feared the verdict of the British people. But then this is not the first time he has been 'less than candid' with the British people.

Embarrassing

2012-01-09T20:34:00.007Z

Surely it wasn't too much to hope that this sort of embarrassing gimmickry was left behind with New Labour or as Richard North points out:

This is the sort of half-assed stunt you expect from third world countries, not Her Majesty's Government.

But no, it seems that one of Cameron's great ambitions is trying to make Labour look respectable. One begins to dread the opening ceremony of the 2012 Olympics - can we now expect Cameron to jump out of a giant cake as an attempt to try to upstage Boris Johnson - don't bet against it, anything now is possible:

Official Confirmation Of The Cameron Deception

2012-01-08T20:15:00.004Z

Bloggers4UKIP has had an official response to his FOI request regarding Cameron's phantom veto, in short he's received official confirmation that Cameron has lied (Bloggers4UKIP's emphasis):

The Foreign & Commonwealth Office have responded today with the following:

Dear Mr Parr,

Thank-you for your email. I apologise for the short delay in getting back to you.

We are not treating your email as an FOI request as no EU Treaty was drafted at the European Council in December. So I have passed your email asking about the Prime Minister’s rejection of a new EU Treaty and a financial transaction tax to my colleagues in our Europe Directorate for a response. They will be in touch shortly.

No treaty? That's interesting because according to the Conservative Party website on the 9th of December ...

Prime Minister David Cameron has today spoken of his decision to veto a new European treaty following a round of discussions with European leaders in Brussels.

Despite this, the narrative of Cameron's veto still continues, never mind the facts.

Talk Constitution

2012-01-08T11:44:00.001Z

I meant to blog earlier on this new initiative by David Phipps of Witterings from Witney and IanPJ on politics on trying to fix our currently subverted constitution and attempting to restore the broken relations between the people and Parliament. WfW's relevant post here is well worth a read in full.

The site talkconstitution.net is due to go live at noon today and you can register here to take part in the debate. The more the better, as UKK41 says democracy is not a spectator sport. Use it or lose it.

The task ahead is however somewhat daunting and I wish WfW all the best in this endeavour. Given that Mrs Thatcher was described this morning, on Andrew Marr as the first UK female head of state, Brown and Cameron both refer to "my Government" and Cameron says "my Parliament", we all face a huge uphill battle.

By Mistake?

2012-01-08T11:07:00.004Z

I'm intrigued by this from the Guardian at the bottom of their article on Manchester United:

Comments opened by mistake? Going by the overwhelming negative comments below the article one can't help feeling that the Guardian is a little sensitive when its journalism is called into question.

Comment is free? Yes, but only on our terms.

Making The Most Of It

2012-01-07T20:31:00.006Z

Apologies in advance to non-football readers of my blog but this doesn't happen often, so I'm making the most of it - a bit of gloating if you like:

And:

Prat

2012-01-05T15:39:00.004Z

Cameron really is useless, this is a Daily Telegraph headline earlier today:

"Kill" health and safety...hmm that's unfortunate wording, so later the Telegraph duly oblige in changing the headline into something more palatable:

Such is the amateurish administration that is the coalition Government - how did no-one spot that before it reached the press?

Still at least we can take comfort in the fact that Cameron is standing up for Britain.

Shut it

2012-01-05T09:48:00.003Z

As someone who runs a small business myself, when I hear stuff like this I really want to shoot him:

David Cameron: "Government is not a good customer for small business. But we will do everything possible to help small businesses."

Yes Dave, if you say so Dave...

Offside!

2012-01-04T18:49:00.007Z

According to the Metro, a new set of coins will be issued to celebrate the London 2012 Olympics which includes a 50p piece that explains the football offside rule.

Allegedly, as pictured above:

The ingenious diagram shows a football pitch with simple icons showing whether a player is offside or not.

Yep, so ingenious that a 50p coin clears all the confusion up.

Such nuances like not "interfering with play", or was he in a "passive position", or was it "second phase play" or giving the "benefit of the doubt" are irrelevant.

We're all simpletons apparently - thank god we have a 50p coin to let us know the rules of football.

Double Trouble

2012-01-04T17:37:00.005Z

I'm glad I'm not the only one to have had doubts about Stephen Lawrence's trial, this from Tim Worstall:

No [I'm not happy about it], not because I’m some scumbag racist, no, not because it’s a bad idea that murderers go to jail. Rather, this:

But in 2005 a chink of light emerged when the double jeopardy rule was abolished, meaning the men could be re-tried.

Double jeopardy is one of our protections against them. Us as citizens against those who would rule us.

The abolition of it leaves us open to continual prosecution: if they don’t manage to get a jury to convict us first time they can just try and try again.

This is a very good example of why hard cases make bad law. That racist murderers go to jail, Hurrah!

That all 65 million of us are stripped of a protection in order to do so, Booo!

I couldn't agree more. Yes racists scumbags deserve justice and nor do I have much sympathy for Norries who allegedly has had a hard time whilst inside, but double jeopardy was there for a reason - a very good reason. As with the RIP Act used against petty crime or terrorist legislation used against innocent football fans, the slippery slope is obvious, we all will be next: tried and tried again until they get the right answer.

Feel The Narrative

2012-01-03T21:35:00.004Z

"History is a set of lies agreed upon" - Napoleon

Despite the fact that Cameron had no power of a veto, there was no treaty to veto and he didn't use the word veto when reporting back to the house (that would have been lying) the 'veto' narrative continues - as pictured above.

It's revealing that Cameron's greatest achievement of 2011 is to take credit for an event that never actually happened but still it's one that his party is proud of. A damning indictment indeed.

With barely a dissenting voice the MSM to a man have reported an event that is complete fiction - one that is lapped up by the public at large. The maxim: "don't believe what you read in the papers" must be one of the most ignored in history - most of us it seems take comfort in being lied to - the truth being treated as a mere inconvenience. This is how history is written.

The overwhelming lesson therefore is, never mind the facts, feel the narrative.

Ten Very Happy Years

2012-01-01T12:28:00.001Z

Today is the tenth anniversary of the Euro's launch in the form of coins and banknotes, three years after it had existed as a virtual currency. The launch was celebrated by fireworks, parties and solemn speeches ushering in a 'brave new world'.

Strangely though ten years on celebrations across the EU have, in contrast, been rather muted:

In Brussels, there will be neither a ceremony nor even a news conference to mark the occasion. That set the tone for other countries, many of which were doing the minimum: preparing to circulate a 2-euro commemorative coin for the anniversary.

So it would be rather remiss of me if I didn't indulge in a little gloating, As Richard North at EUReferendum puts it:

"If you cannot have the occasional gloat then, frankly, life ain't worth living."

Today, several Euro members are on the edge of bankruptcy. Europe is pitifully reduced to asking the IMF and China for help and the euro itself is on the brink of unravelling.

Have I said "We told you so" yet?

The Mail is also jumping on the gloating bandwagon by laying the boot into the BBC:

What a difference a decade makes. Ten years ago, the BBC announced ‘Euphoria in Euroland’ as it hailed the birth of the euro.

But with the single currency now facing collapse, the Corporation’s coverage of today’s anniversary has been notably more restrained, as senior executives prepare to defend their ‘pro-Brussels bias’ during a showdown meeting with Eurosceptics.

So here, as a bit of New Year's fun, are a few quotes from some of our great and wise 'leaders' such as Nick Clegg:

The euro, despite the foolish assumption of many commentators that it should be judged according to its external level with the dollar, has already provided great internal stability to the eurozone

And:

The euro has done more to enforce budgetary discipline in the rest of Europe than any number of exhortations from the IMF or the OECD. If we remain outside the euro, we will simply continue to subside into a position of relative poverty and inefficiency compared to our more prosperous European neighbours.

Or this from Chris Huhne:

If we get rid of sterling and adopt the euro, we will also get rid of sterling crises and sterling overvaluations. This will give us a real control over our economic environment. Our manufacturers, farmers and other trading businesses would be able to rely on the exchange rate against our main continental trading partners staying unchanged forever.

And this from Michael Heseltine (my emphasis):

We see [the dangers] today in the exchange rates where our own non-membership of the eurozone is threatening great swathes of British manufacturing industry. The effect of [the introduction of euro notes and coins] will unleash a range of competitiveness which is simply not understood.

You see the most extraordinary things said about the plans to encourage British industry to change its capacity to trade in euros, as though changing over your tills and cash registers is somehow a contribution to the sacrifice of your sovereignty. If you have 300m people who have nothing but euros to spend you have to be barking mad not to be able to take the euros.

And Peter Mandelson:

The price we would pay [by not joining] in lost investment and jobs in Britain would be incalculable. Outside the euro, there is little we can do to protect industry against destabilising swings in the value of sterling.

Not forgetting Tony Blair:

Even if it [taking Britain into the euro] is unpopular, I will recommend it if it is the right thing to do.

Europe's economic fundamentals are sound: sounder than they have been for over a generation. The EU's economies are growing and it is important to underline that they are now creating jobs in Europe faster than almost anywhere else in the developed world.

And:

The decision to launch the single currency is the first step and marks the turning point for Europe, marks stability and growth and is crucial to high levels of growth and employment.

Let's have this one from Yves-Thibault de Silguy a former EU Commissioner in 1998:

Britain can not survive as a serious international power unless it joins the single currency. We can live without you, but you can't live without us.

Or Charles Kennedy:

The euro, despite gloomy predictions from anti-Europeans, has proved to be a success. We cannot afford to be isolated from our biggest and closest trading partner any longer.

Or Wolfgang Muchau in the Financial Times in 2006:

There is not the slightest danger of a break-up of the Eurozone. On the contrary, I expect the Eurozone to be exceptionally stable in the long run. Make no mistake, the Eurozone is here to stay.

And:

The world’s two large reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro, offer more protection from speculative attack than a free-floating offshore currency unit. The UK will at some point have to make a choice whether it wants to be in the Eurozone or whether it wants to seek an alternative use for those rather tall buildings in the heart of London.

Nostradamus has a better accuracy rate than that.

Still, the Euro managed to limp along and make it to Christmas, but the expectation must surely be that the crisis will return with a vengeance in the first few weeks of the New Year, certainly the noises are that a breakup in one form or another is being anticipated.

So will the Euro survive 2012? We'll have to wait and see but the chances are not good.

2012

2011-12-31T20:20:00.001Z

A happy New Year, and many thanks to all who have followed and read this blog over the last year. I'd like to wish everyone all the best, and good health, for 2012.

Edited By An Elephant

2011-12-28T11:19:00.004Z

I was initially going to ignore this report in the Telegraph because it is going over very old ground regarding minimum pricing on alcohol. We've been here many times before, not least nearly a year ago when the coalition 'pretended' they had in fact introduced such a ban:

It's like the 2010 election never happened and Labour are still in power.

But what caught my eye was that the Telegraph, who never mention the EU at all when it comes to this issue, almost fall over themselves pointing out that very elephant in the room:

The Business Department has warned that forcing firms to charge a minimum price could be illegal under European law. Andrew Lansley, the Health Secretary, favours a voluntary approach, but he has been overruled by Mr Cameron, although the compulsory scheme might fall foul of government lawyers.

And:

A Whitehall source said: “The Prime Minister has decided that when it comes to alcohol, something pretty radical now has to be done and he is keen on the minimum price. It is complicated how this can be delivered, particularly under European law...

And:

European law is complicated and minimum prices are only likely to be allowed if the authorities can demonstrate that they are tackling a major health problem without undermining competition.

And:

Historically, governments have been reluctant to look at minimum pricing because of concerns about the legality of the move...

What's going on? I can only assume that the regular Telegraph staff have gone on holiday for Christmas and the temporary cover are making a better fist of it. No doubt in January when the regular staff return, normal service of ignoring the elephant will be resumed.

Merry Christmas

2011-12-24T15:34:00.005Z

To all the readers of my blog, a very Merry Christmas. A big thank you to all of you that have taken the trouble to read, comment and include me in your blogrolls.

...I'm now off to the pub...hic!

Isolated But Right

2011-12-20T17:26:00.003Z

UKIP have put together the following compilation of the disdain shown by other countries towards the UK regarding Cameron's (phantom) veto:

Leaving aside that Cameron didn't actually veto anything, what's revealing is that 'Brit bashing' is apparently fair game. Should eurosceptics in this country have indulged in such language about other EU countries then the usual retorts of 'little Englander' would've be chucked about with abandon.

Naturally all of this will be used as an argument of the UK being isolated in Europe. The isolation argument has always been a red herring. It matters not if you're on your own, what matters is if you're right. It's far better to be isolated yet correct, than be wrong only in order to take comfort in being a sheep. The latter is perfect territory for extreme political outcomes that ironically the EU was supposedly designed to prevent.

Ronald Reagan once said:

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."

I'm partly here on this planet because my maternal grandparents met, as workers, at the Supermarine Spitfire plant in Swindon during WWII. They, in their own way, helped fight for my freedom and so as a consequence handed it down for me to do the same - I intend to carry that fight on. If that makes us isolated then so be it - I don't care.

Parish Notice

2011-12-17T10:03:00.002Z

Due to some significant upheaval on the domestic front (nothing serious) posting will be sparse for the next few weeks.

However in the words of some obscure Austrian bodybuilder, "I'll be back".

I despair...

2011-12-09T13:12:00.004Z

...I really do. I can't cope with today because of 'bollocks overload'. Apparently Cameron has gained a spine (when did that operation occur?) and stood up for Britain against the EU. Cameron has seemingly suddenly turned into Churchill and defended our shores against the might of Europe. Yeah right!

Cameron has always shown himself to be a europhile ever since he became leader so why has he only now performed a u-turn so large that it's visible from space? The short answer is, he hasn't.

Despite the wisdom of the all seeing eyes that are journalists (who think this is a summit not a council meeting) there has been no veto, in fact no treaty changes can be made without an IGC. This is evident in the weasel words that are being used (my emphasis):

PM declares: 'I had to pursue Britain's interests... I effectively wielded the veto.

Effectively does not mean he has. And...

Cameron faces virtual isolation

Virtual eh? Not the same thing.

The golden rule with Cameron is to accept that he is a europhile, so if he appears to make statements to the contrary then there will inevitably be a massive catch So why are most falling for his guff?

Cameron is playing to a pliable British press to convince his party that he really is eurosceptic, when strong evidence shows conclusively the opposite. This is obvious in this piece by the Mail:

This is the moment that Nicolas Sarkozy demonstrates exactly what he really thinks of David Cameron's veto of the EU Treaty change.

After the gruelling all-night sitting in Brussels, Mr Cameron approaches the French president with his hand outstretched, ready to shake and show there are no hard feelings.

But not only does Mr Sarkozy refuse to acknowledge the PM, he actually does a swift swerve aside, waving pointedly to someone - anyone - on his right.

I bet now Cameron and Sarkozy are laughing in private, saying to each other "brilliant we got the timing just right" but Sarkozy saying; "shit, I still look short in the photos"

Boris Johnson has concluded that Cameron has played a blinder - in a sense he's right: Cameron is stupid but he's cute enough to play to the gallery of Tory voters who are more stupid and gullible than him.

A Greasy Chip Butty

2011-12-07T19:07:00.007Z

I feel I should write a piece on my thoughts on the latest Euro crisis. But I can't. I simply can't. Nothing significant appears to have changed, Cameron will still try to wriggle out of promises he made, the fundamental flaws will still exist and the markets will be temporarily jolly then retreat. AEP from the Telegraph puts it succinctly:

A blizzard of silly proposals has hit the wires this week as a legion of ministers, diplomats, commissars, high secretaries, and fellow travellers all lobby and conspire to create "momentum" behind pet themes. In the meantime, nothing workable is actually on the table before the "summit-to-save-the-euro" on Friday.

Be careful. Do not be distracted by Byzantine absurdities. And don’t listen to anybody who uses the term fiscal union. There is no such proposal. All we have so far is a Stability Pact with extra lipstick (Fiskalunion).

Nothing further to add.

It leaves me wondering whether I should write a generic post along the lines of; "nothing to see here, move along the bus please" and keep reposting it after every EU meeting a la Blue Peter's 'here's one I made earlier'. So I can only agree with this piece by Governmentitus who labels the Euro as being in "do not resuscitate" territory (ironically in his first posting for a long time).

Meanwhile, the BBC - in its wisdom - has spent the best part of the day regurgitation a 'bears heading towards woods clutching newspapers' story:

Nearly half of cancers diagnosed in the UK each year - over 130,000 in total - are caused by avoidable life choices including smoking, drinking and eating the wrong things, a review reveals.

This nannying by the BBC is relentless and I'm fed up of it. Can we have proper news not some uncritical publishing of a report by an organisation with an agenda?

So this is an ideal opportunity therefore to link to, what is in my view one of the finest football chants in the English game - the Greasy Chip Butty song by Sheffield United fans, the lyrics being sung to the tune of John Denver's Annie's song:

You fill up my senses
Like a gallon of Magnet
Like a packet of Woodbines
Like a good pinch of snuff
Like a night out in Sheffield
Like a greasy chip butty
Like Sheffield United
Come fill me again....

I'm not sure what I like about this chant the most; the sound of 30,000 drunken Yorkshire men battering Denver's song into submission, the fluffy lyrics of the original sung by wool jumper wearing Denver being replaced by uncompromising Northern imagery, or the fact that when I've heard it sung at Bramall Lane copious children stand up singing (arms outstretched) "you fill up my senses...like a packet of Woodbines".

Anyway it's a wonderful riposte to the neverending BBC propaganda every week and no doubt would give some of those in the BBC, should they hear it, a heart attack....ironically.

Shedding Voters

2011-12-06T20:59:00.009Z

From the Man In A Shed's profile:

I've only just spotted this from a Man in a Shed's profile - a now seemingly former Tory, who has been unhappy for sometime with the Tories and especially Cameron. Indicative of the systematic decline of all political parties - particularly the Tories since Cameron took over.

Cameron's loyalty is to the EU even if it means the complete destruction of his own party. What more of a damning indictment is there of the insidious nature of our membership.

As per the infamous FCO 30/1048 document of 1971 predicting the implications of our membership of the then EEC:

(ii) the transfer of major executive responsibilities to the bureaucratic Commission in Brussels will exacerbate popular feeling of alienation from government.

That alienation has come to pass - big time.

Referendum? T & C's Apply

2011-12-05T21:07:00.002Z

This is just joyous from Witterings from Witney:

Mr Whippy

2011-12-05T18:43:00.004Z

Labour MP Tom Watson has just summed up the state of our so-called representative democracy in just one single tweet:

One would like to think he was voting because he was swayed by the arguments, because it was an issue of conscience or, heaven forbid, it was on behalf of his constituents.

But no... it's more important to remember if the vote is whipped and (presumably) vote accordingly to party orders.

A BBC Obituary

2011-12-04T11:50:00.006Z

Football supporters amongst my readers may have noted that the legendary Brazilian player; Socrates, has sadly passed away. He was a wonderful player whose enthusiasm for the game was only matched by his enthusiasm for cigarettes and alcohol.

That aside, the point of my post is to pick up on this obituary by the BBC. Firstly it states:

At 6ft 4in tall he was known for his physical strength...

Which leaves one wondering whether the author has actually ever seen him play. A beautiful passer of the ball he definitely was, however the least of his attributes was his physical strength - by his own admission:

"Alcohol did not affect my career, in part because I never had the physical build to play this game," he said.

"Soccer became my profession only when I was already 24. I was too thin and when I was young I did not have the opportunity to prepare myself physically for the sport."

Then we get to this (my emphasis):

His heroes included famous libertarians Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, the men who led the Cuban revolution of the 1950s,

Er...in what way can those two mass-murdering men ever be described as libertarians?

You can't even get away from BBC bias in a footballer's obituary.

Update: Thanks to Witterings From Witney in the comments, he's alerted me to the fact that the BBC (as expected) have made a silent edit to their obituary. It now reads:

His heroes included Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, the men who led the Cuban revolution of the 1950s...

But I have a screen print:

I'm So Happy....

2011-12-03T21:54:00.004Z

Sometimes, just sometimes I wonder if I live on a different planet to most other people... This from the Irish Times:

Psychiatrist calls for lithium to be added to water

A consultant psychiatrist last night called on Government to add lithium salts to the public water supply in a bid to lower the suicide rate and depression among the general population.
At a mental health forum on “Depression in Rural Ireland” in Ennistymon, Co Clare, Dr Moosajee Bhamjee said that “there is growing scientific evidence that adding trace amounts of the drug lithium to a water supply can lower rates of suicide and depression”.
Dr Bhamjee said that a community would not get “hooked” on lithium “because the doses would be so small”.
He said: “There are 200,000 people suffering from depression in Ireland and the Government must think of new ways of tackling the problem.”
Mr Neville said that with the well-publicised suicide of footballer Gary Speed, it raised contagion or copycat suicide concerns.

Do read the article in full, ironically it makes you laugh and depressed at the same time. Perhaps it's a clever ruse by Dr Bhamjee on behalf of the Irish Government to drug the Irish into pretending the Euro crisis is not much to worry about.

Anyway at least it gives me an excuse, on a Saturday evening, to plug a Nirvana classic:

A Disgrace

2011-12-02T14:17:00.002Z

You don't need any more evidence than today's Telegraph editorial of the deeply corrupting nature of our membership of the EU. While pretending to be Eurosceptic, like all newspapers (with the suspect exception of the Daily Express) it supports our membership. And look what that contradictory (and bollocks) position of 'in Europe but not ruled by it' does with regard to the Euro:

The Germans are, for historical reasons, desperate to avoid again being placed in a central role at the heart of Europe. But circumstances have conspired to bring this about. Paradoxically, a European Union established to dissipate German power has enhanced it once more. And yet, perhaps because their own economy has performed exceptionally well, the Germans will not face up to their responsibilities. As a modern-day European diplomat, Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, said this week: “I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear its inactivity.” For a Pole, that was a remarkable statement. The Germans should listen, and act.

Desperate to maintain the Euro, what the Telegraph is advocating here is, not only a German dominated Europe, but the destruction of democracy across Europe including in Germany. Will German voters have a say in a undemocratic fiscal union that the Telegraph is essentially proposing? Or any other European countries for that matter? This...from a British newspaper.

The deepest irony is that the Euro crisis exists because the German Constitutional Court is upholding the basics of democracy and refusing to let Merkel throw it away on a whim just to prop up the Euro.

So in short the Telegraph wants Germany to throw away Europe's democracy for the sake of the EU and then it will viciously condemn it for doing so.

What a disgrace.

One Minute To Midnight For The Euro

2011-12-02T11:40:00.000Z

Pro-EU Tory MP William Hague once said:

"[the Euro] is a burning building with no exits"

In that he was correct, however it doesn't mean that exit is entirely impossible. It's clear in the current circumstances that, due to a lack of proper exits, a form of 'mouse-holing' is occurring - to exit rather than enter. The flight from the eurozone is gaining momentum and by any means necessary.

Both Merkel and Sarkozy are grandstanding with statements of their relevant positions that haven't changed in substance in months if not years. This no longer has anything to do with saving the Euro but protecting their legacy especially with their domestic audiences. And everyone else has cotton on. The breakup of the Euro is increasingly being discussed less like an option but more as an inevitability. China has given up:

China tells Europe: You are on your own

China, one of the few countries with pockets deep enough to buy up Europe's debt, cannot use its £2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to rescue other countries, Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said yesterday.

CEOs of major companies are giving up:

It is one minute to midnight for the euro
That is the view of the chief executives of European giants Shell, Philips, Unilever, DSM and AkzoNobel, revealed in a letter to Dutch paper Het Financieele Dagblad. They are running out of patience with Europe's politicians.

"It is one minute to twelve and is therefore of the utmost importance that there will come a strong handling of the euro crisis in the short term," they wrote, demanding "political courage" to create stability."

And Sir Mervyn King has given up:

But in my several decades as a financial and economics commentator – covering banking crises dating back to the early 1970s and the Latin American debt catastrophes of the early 1980s – I have never heard a sitting governor talk in such apocalyptic terms about the parlous state of the global financial system.

It's all over chaps, please get on with it and in the most orderly way possible. Thanks.

Quote Of The Day

2011-12-01T22:59:00.003Z

From the Telegraph (my emphasis):

The clock is ticking for the euro. After 11 years circulating in shops and bars from Athens to Zeebrugge, there are, it is said, just 10 days left to save it

Was the use of Zeebrugge deliberate?

Going Going...?

2011-12-01T17:20:00.002Z

Back to the Euro crisis, events appear to be moving to a conclusion. It's getting hard to work out what exactly the state of play is and what is going on; we're now reduced to guesswork essentially, as Xen rightly concluded in a previous comment on here, and the scary thing is it appears that those in charge don't seem to know either.

What is clear though is that the news chatter is intensifying greatly which indicates panic is setting in significantly. I suggested before that sandbagging maybe happening with gusto but one wonders if they know what they are supposed to be sandbagging against, especially with these rather unusually stark comments from Sir Mervyn King:

Banks should brace themselves to withstand the "extraordinarily serious and threatening" economic situation, the Bank of England governor has said.

Which prompted this analysis:

If anyone was in any doubt about the severity of the eurozone crisis and what it might mean for the UK, they shouldn't be any more.

The governor of the Bank of England delivered his starkest warning yet. It's quite something for a central banker to describe the financial climate as "extraordinarily serious and threatening".

Sir Mervyn King made no attempt to play down speculation about the possible break-up of the eurozone. He thinks banks can weather storms ahead if they set aside more capital. But he acknowledged that the problems were widespread and beyond the control of any UK authority.

To sum up the financial regulators' message - fasten your seatbelts for what could be a very bumpy ride.

It's getting obvious that no-one has the first idea what they're doing and are in denial about the urgent and fundamental problems of the Eurozone....that then leaves only one conclusion and one inevitable outcome. Gulp!

3 Is The Magic Number

2011-12-01T10:42:00.004Z

There are really only three good things about the Telegraph; its cryptic crossword (for me anyway), it's the best newspaper for making a Millwall brick, and Matt:

Meltdown

2011-12-01T10:20:00.001Z

"Controversial 'right winger' Jeremy Clarkson caused outrage across the nation", screams the Daily Mail. "His comments about shooting strikers sparked a massive national debate" it continues, "we know this because he trended on twitter causing it to go into 'meltdown'."

"Celebrities, MPs and Stephen Fry queued up to express their outrage...on twitter" cries the Telegraph, "John Prescott (former deputy PM) tweeted; 'pleeease won't someone think of the teachers...', Tony Parsons tweets; 'Clarkson should be shot for saying strikers should be shot' and a former trade unionist tweets; 'Thatcher dying of cancer jokes are hilarious, but Clarkson's comments are nasty and cross the line'."

Or...

Another way of looking at it.

It's only a couple of weeks until Christmas, a BBC presenter has a new book and DVD out and appears on a BBC programme (Biased BBC could fill its blog on just the One Show alone).

Said BBC presenter then makes some mildly amusing yet knowingly controversial comments (where he was clearly joking), thus generating lots of useful and very helpful publicity.

If there's one post I would recommend today above all others it's this one from Richard North on the state of our media.

Irrelevant

2011-11-29T14:44:00.006Z

Much fuss, sorry I mean analysis, I'm sure will be made of Osborne's pre-budget report today or the Autumn Statement as it's now known because the Tories promised to abolish the PBR. Promises, promises eh? Oh and the Tories also pledged to report to Parliament first not leak stuff beforehand, something they criticised Labour for. That'll be yet another promise broken then.

Anyway, some are referring to it as Brown's 13th budget, which indicates not only the lack of substance - tinkering about the edges - but deliberately making it more confusing: such as flipping between using Office for Budget Responsibility figures on growth and debt but using Treasury figures on the deficit. Witterings from Witney has also come to similar conclusions - labelling Osborne as an economic prat. I must say I can't disagree.

Yet it doesn't matter what the forecasts are - they've been wrong four times in the last 18 months already - the continuing eurozone crisis renders any such predictions as null and void.

Interestingly though Ed Balls, in response to the Chancellor's statement gave a great demonstration of a political dog whistle:

"If we are all in it together, why is it families, women and children always pay the most?"

See what he did there? The vast majority of men have families too, in some form or another, including the multi-millionaires: Osborne, Clegg and Cameron. So the statement is factually correct and logically he's referring to almost everyone in the country but the implication Balls' wants to give is entirely different.

Talking of agendas, out of all the 'announcements' made by Osborne see what the BBC has gone with just before tomorrow's strike:

Every Man For Himself

2011-11-28T15:38:00.004Z

At first it was a drip drip, but now the messages warning of an Euro breakup - or euphemistically called 'a major event' - is gathering pace. The Financial Times warns that there are only 10 days left:

Italy’s disastrous bond auction on Friday tells us time is running out. The eurozone has 10 days at most.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) gives very chilling forecasts that the Eurozone is rapidly deteriorating (my emphasis):

THE OECD says the eurozone crisis is now one step away from plunging advanced economies into an abyss of recession and even depression, with waves of bankruptcies and wealth destruction in Europe.
"The euro area crisis represents the key risk to the world economy at present," the OECD said in an unusually stark outlook report.
"A large negative event would... most likely send the OECD area as a whole into recession."
"If not addressed, recent contagion to countries thought to have relatively solid public finances could massively escalate economic disruption,"

Not only that but there's a large scale 'quiet' bank run on Eurozone banks and a very visible one a la Northern Rock in an another EU country - Latvia. Money is pouring out of the Eurozone at an alarming speed and the Euro banks are rapidly reaching a liquidity crisis. Welcome to credit crunch 2.0.

Those warnings continue with Zerohedge's post here (my emphasis):

Moody’s and others are indicating that time is running out and it may be a matter of days. ICAP, the currency trading facilitator, said it is testing its systems for a return to the drachma or even the Deutsche mark. Italian PM Monti admitted that the breakup of the Eurozone has been broached at meetings with top leaders.

This morning European stocks and U.S. futures are spiking sharply. The pundits are trying to pin the spike on everything from Black Friday sales to an IMF bailout of Italy. We think the spike is the reaction of a very oversold market to the resurfacing of the Sarkozy based rumor of a treaty deal for fiscal linkage. But, even if it’s true, can it be implemented quickly enough for a situation thought to be days away from crisis or climax?

Normally I'm reluctant to take the apocalyptic view, however clearly there seems panic behind the scenes. As this piece for the Telegraph asks, why haven't the supposed FCO warnings of possible riots and chaos in the event of a Euro collapse been published officially?

The radio silence from the EU (apart from some recent desperate unworkable announcements) lead to the suspicion that, like a falling dictator who quickly takes as much money as possible before he scarpers, the EU etc are desperately sandbagging to save themselves.

In short now it's every man for himself.

Update: Just seen that Richard North has more.

RIP Speedo

2011-11-27T19:30:00.002Z

As a football fan, to say I'm stunned by today's news that Gary Speed has died is an understatement. He had a wonderful career epitomised by honest hard-work, endeavour and intelligent movement that allowed him to drift into scoring positions at the last minute. I've had the privilege of seeing him play on a number of occasions.

He also had a beautiful wife and two children...and yet...it still apparently wasn't enough. It just shows that you can never truly know someone, and undoubtedly there will be many many hurt people tonight who believed they could have helped if only he'd approached them.

Despite all the headlines of the danger of drugs and knife crime, suicide is a much bigger killer of men, particularly young men, and one that could be largely prevented if not for the stigma of its causes. If nothing else hopefully today's tragic news will help reverse that.

My condolences go to his wife and his two children at this terrible time.

RIP Mr Speed

"Awful Auction"

2011-11-25T18:55:00.003Z

From the Financial Times:

Bond yields on short-term Italian debt rose above 8 per cent on Friday as Rome was forced to pay euro-era high interest rates in what analysts called an “awful” auction.

Italy raised its targeted €10bn in an auction of two-year bonds and six-month bills but at sharply higher yields.

“Rates have skyrocketed. It’s simply not sustainable in the long run,” said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London.

It's all falling apart, but those that advocated this stupid, ridiculous and unworkable currency will get away scot free; it's the rest of us that will suffer the consequences when it all goes wrong.

What To Believe?

2011-11-25T17:56:00.009Z

The Euro crisis naturally is rumbling on, and in the Noddygraph we have this from Benedict Brogan predicting Euro armageddon but don't panic 'call me Dave' is (sort of) on the case:

The Economist, with its cover of a euro coming down in flames, asks "Is this really the end?" and answers that, basically, yes it is. A senior minister explained to me a few days ago that contingency planning is now well under way, and takes in both preparations at home for a shock on the banks and work with consulates and embassies abroad, specifically in the eurozone, to anticipate social and banking disruption when it all goes wrong.

See, now I have a dilemma with this report. On the one hand Government ministers would be bloody stupid if they weren't conjuring up contingency plans for a Euro collapse, yet on the other hand they are bloody stupid. And to top it off Benedict Brogan is an apologist for Dave, whose 'lack of talents' knows no bounds. So what to make of it? One gets the feeling, that I've expressed before on here, that groundwork is being prepared for the blame game.

The reality seems pretty clear; the Euro crisis is coming to a conclusion, despite the EU rhetoric. The fundamental differences between German and France have not been resolved yet the 'record' has not changed for months, so one is inclined to accept this final paragraph from Brogan:

The betting in Team Dave seems to be that the game is as good as up for the single currency. "It's in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare," the minister told me. Anyone who has any kind of exposure to the euro – a euro mortgage for example, or a euro account, or euro contracts – should be taking advice now on how to mitigate the risk: politicians in the eurozone have their heads in the sand, and won't admit that behind the scenes officials across europe are scrambling to fill the sandbags while there is still time.

But then we remember that Mr Brogan writes crap like this and this and this. So what to believe? Probably like a broken watch which is still right twice a day, Brogan may have it correct this time, but if so, that instils another rather large concern - we're facing the biggest mass sovereign default in history, so if Cameron is really organising the sandbagging, then God help us.

On Standby

2011-11-24T09:22:00.008Z

Out of necessity I've had to purchase a new idiot's lantern. It's nothing particularly special, I don't really watch much television but I'm pretty pleased with it.

Naturally the box was festooned with copious environmental messages, most of them images with red lines through, telling you not what to do such as; don't dispose of in a wheelie bin, or throw it at your neighbour's cat - that sort of thing. On the box also was a large logo with the words "Planet First: Making the world a greener, cleaner place to live".

Inside the box, the 'think of the polar bears' theme continues. Included is a foil sticker which contains an EU energy rating and has energy consumption figures on it. Mine is rated 'A' so apparently that's good (it looks remarkably similar to those foil club badges in Panini football sticker albums).

And so onto the instruction manual. Now, don't expect it tell you how to set the tv up, because it won't, there's the e-manual on the tv to do that - saves paper you see. So you have to turn the set on in order to get instructions on how to plug the tv in. Instead, in the paper version, we get more environmental messages such as the carbon footprint and the following advice:

Do not leave your tv in standby mode for long periods of time, as a small amount of electric power is still consumed.

So all well and good, I've bought a new tv and have nice warm feeling inside that I've done my bit for the environment.

However, there's a problem...

There's one feature my shiny new tv doesn't have that all my previous ones did...an on/off button. It doesn't have one, no push button, no rocker switch, no nothing. That then leaves only two options. Either unplugging the set, which means clambering around the back, fighting the cable spaghetti to unplug it from a four gang socket (for Mrs TBF this is a complete non starter). Or...wait for it...leave it on standby...permanently.

Genius, eh?

Quote Of The Day

2011-11-23T22:29:00.000Z

From today's German paper Bild, with the headline:

Britain, America and the EU: All want our [Germany's] Cash,

...the last paragraph says, translated from German courtesy of Google translate (my emphasis):

In plain English: The French want to go to big money - and that may be in Europe at the end, only the German one.

Who Will Blink First

2011-11-23T18:59:00.001Z

As Eurozone contagion swirls around Germany, Merkel has apparently made her position clear with what appears to be a Shermanesque statement:

"I am firmly convinced that the mandate of the European Central Bank cannot, absolutely cannot, be changed."

So now what? There are two stark options for Merkel; integration or break-up. Instead what we have here is a game of brinkmanship being taken right to the wire where all of our lives are being messed about on a whim. We've been here before, but it won't affect them it will instead affect us.

We should not be accepting this.

Last Man Standing

2011-11-23T17:40:00.003Z

Contagion contagion everywhere; Spain is being hit with ever higher borrowing costs, so has Belgium, and Italy - bond yields which are again above the 7% level - and Portugal and so on. The markets have already assumed that France will lose its treasured AAA status. Then this morning contagion has hit the last man standing - the benchmark - Germany. 'A disaster' is what the German bond auction is being called (my emphasis):

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - German government bonds fell sharply on Wednesday after investors shunned the country's auction of new 10-year debt, signalling that the fast-spreading euro zone crisis was eroding the safe haven status of German debt.
Germany drew significantly less [sic] bids than the amount on offer for its Bunds, with investors deterred by very low yields. The euro zone powerhouse was caught between the best and worst possible scenarios on the euro zone crisis.
"It is a complete and utter disaster," said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London. "If Germany can only manage a 0.65 cover in actual terms for what is going to be their next benchmark then what hope for everybody else?"
"It really tells you that the Bund yields are at the completely wrong level ... never mind that they are a safe haven. There's certainly a partial element of 'they (investors)would rather not have euros' in there."

The decisions by Germany are essential to the survival or otherwise of the Euro. As argued before on this blog, Germany faces an impossible position; it wants the survival of the Euro but is unable to take the steps necessary to ensure this. In a great piece Acting Man calls it An Intractable Problem.

The EU of course is arguing for more integration via Eurobonds as a solution:

The EC is launching a consultation to assess if the 17 eurozone countries can issue the bonds to raise cash.

Mr Barroso's 'stability bonds' plan would see much more investigation and control of the budgets of countries within the eurozone, to avoid a repeat of the bailouts and crises affecting the region.

But the EU must know that this would be illegal under German Constitutional Court rulings, it makes one wonder whether not only is this the last desperate throw of the dice for more integration but the laying of the groundwork for the blame game when it all goes pear shaped - that it was Germany's fault for not listening to the EC and its 'messiah' Barroso. The collapse of the Euro will cause enormous political ramifications and fallout.

The Financial Times has interesting piece that the markets have effectively 'smoked out' a stealth operation by the Bundesbank to try to control the German bond market, which spectacularly failed this morning:

That, alongside the fact that the Bundesbank is retaining an ever greater share of bonds from auction, suggests only one thing to the logical mind. It is the Bundesbank which is cornering the bund market on purpose. And it’s doing so to ensure that the one last repo rate in Europe that can be controlled remains suppressed.
The rate is important to suppress because almost all interbank funding is now done on a secured basis against the best quality collateral. Which implies two important points: 1) that the ECB itself has lost control and depends almost entirely on the Bundesbank to enforce its low rate policy target and 2) that the Bundesbank is having to retain more bunds from the market than ever before just to ensure the last functioning repo rate in Europe doesn’t spiral out of control.

That, we would say, is a big deal.

Whatever the case, Wednesday’s auction suggests the Bundesbank’s stealth operation has finally been outed. The question is, will the Bundesbank now be broken too?

One thing is for sure, though, now that Eurozone contagion has infected Germany, it's game over.

ClimateGate II

2011-11-22T16:08:00.006Z

This subject is not really my speciality but here we go again, And here; even the BBC is doing a slightly better job than last time (not difficult and 'slightly' being the operative word which underlines the seriousness in which the BBC are taking it)

Apparently the UEA says (my emphasis):

"If genuine, (the sheer volume of material makes it impossible to confirm at present that they are all genuine) these emails have the appearance of having been held back after the theft of data and emails in 2009 to be released at a time designed to cause maximum disruption to the imminent international climate talks".

That will naturally be reported, by the MSM, as an entirely different type of data theft in comparison to this, this and this.

Stupid Questions

2011-11-22T14:00:00.004Z

Readers probably recognise the above picture as an Ishihara colour plate used to test for colour blindness. These were my nemesis at school. I was subjected to these more than most because I neither had perfect sight nor full colour blindness - just somewhere inbetween - something which completely confused my testers. ("but you must be one or the other"). For example (apparently) with the above plate if you have normal sight then 74 should be visible those with full colour blindness you may see 21. Me? I just see dots.

My problem was not trying to find tennis balls in the grass nor distinguishing traffic lights but subtle differences between certain colours. Now, this has never been much of a problem: it only ever really cropped up with some computer games, notably older versions of Pro Evolution Soccer, where it would choose the teams' kits and you couldn't amend them. Certain clashes of strip colours meant that whilst I could see the difference when the game was paused I couldn't pick out the teams when the game was in progress and the players were moving about. The result was that in those circumstances I got heavily beaten (well that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).

Anyway, 'my eyesight problem' has cropped up this morning. I've been installing, for the company I work for, a new server monitoring software, which uses a really rubbish traffic light system to detect problems. Basically it gives a red alert for a major hardware failure, a yellow alert for a minor failure and a green alert for all ok. However the subtle differences between the shades of green and yellow that are used means that I find it difficult at first glance to differentiate between the two. This resulted in the following conversation:

Him: "It's that one" (pointing to the yellow alert)
TBF: "Oh right thanks, sorry I'm partially colour blind"
Him: "How can you not see that?"
TBF: "I just can't, sorry"
Him: "But it's obvious it's yellow, how can you not see that?"
TBF: "Sorry, not to me it isn't"
Him: "Jesus, you're weird"

Needless to say my response at this point was delivered in full and frank Anglo-Saxon language.

Fed Up

2011-11-22T11:32:00.001Z

Richard North once described membership of UKIP as; "optimism, descending into frustration, to disillusionment and to betrayal"

I'm rapidly coming to similar conclusions.

Compare And Contrast

2011-11-21T00:54:00.009Z

Compare the interview that Ken Livingstone gets on Andrew Marr (circa 25:00 mins in - also worth watching Jon Simpson on the paper reviews earlier - being biased and then trying to deny it) and what Nigel Farage endures on the Politics Show later (circa 8:00 mins in, with an intro that is less than ...erm... balanced).

Going by this interview presenter Jon Sopel's own views are obvious - his line of questioning is clearly seen to be less to do with holding a politician to account on his policies but more to do with expressing his personal views. I know this is "do bears shit in the woods" stuff but it really is a disgrace.

The Enemy Is Within

2011-11-18T17:45:00.006Z

As expected much will be made of apparent German moves to deny us a say. The fallacy of a German EU takeover was not only highlighted in my previous post, but also in a piece by Englands Freedome, Souldiers Rights:

The Tory press seems to be making out Germany as the villain in the current political shenanigans concerning the disintegrating EU. Those of us in favour of independence should steer well clear of this evocation of the ghosts of past conflicts. This is not about the struggle of nation against nation, but of the parasitical political/bureaucratic class against the common people in this nation and in others.

David Cameron, clueless puppet though he is, should be the object of our ire, not Angela Merkel. He is the point-man for the EU's continued take-over of this country. The fact is that events are blowing gaping holes in the political position of the pro-Brussels gang. In this country they have forever lied to us that the EU was not about ever-closer union, leading inevitably to something resembling the United States of Europe. Elsewhere this has been discussed openly, but the pro-Brussels gang have not wanted such a debate. Far better to mislead the public for as long as humanly possible as to the true nature of the 'Project'.

Absolutely spot on, a point also echoed by Daniel Hannan this week, in a post I've only just seen.

The problem is by seeing the EU as a German 'problem' not only does it identify the wrong enemy, but it becomes in effect a coward’s cult. By that I mean that incorrectly portraying a 'superior' enemy who is all seeing and all powerful (something very common to most conspiracy theories) it in effect, and ironically, renders the critics powerless. As a consequence it thus becomes an excuse for inaction used by those who don’t have the stomach to engage in real political battles. In short it's easier to blame the Germans, than actually do something about it.

The tragedy is that there are more of us than them and we don't utilise that fact; we have the power to bring down the Cameron coalition government in days should we wish - the fuel protests showed the way, we could also have a tax strike or we could challenge the finances of local government. Instead it appears to be easier to blame the Germans and do nothing.

Thus I have a lot of sympathy with Captain Ranty's frustrations.

"10 German Bombers..."

2011-11-18T10:40:00.004Z

As Richard North wrote on Wednesday "Anti-German sentiment is still only skin-deep in much of British society" and with Cameron meeting Merkel today in what has been described as a tense meeting so it proves. Following on from recent copies of the Express and the Daily Mail, today's Telegraph (pictured above) indulges in a non-too subtle form of 'hun-bashing'. As a result I'm already suffering from 'Godwin's law overload' trying to follow the Euro crisis - and it's still only mid-morning as I write.

But nevermind, apparently German plots are afoot to deny us our say... which is nonsense. If we wanted a referendum in this country we can jolly well have one, there's little the Germans or anyone else can do about it. The real reason we won't get one lies a lot closer to home; more specifically David '3-line whip' Cameron. That somehow the Germans are preventing a referendum that Cameron really wants is ludicrous - at least it gives him someone to blame though.

Not that any of this will prevent outbursts that the EU is really a Fourth Reich or ODESSA-on-steroids. The reality is much different, as revealed by even only a cursory look at the EU's French origins and the consistent manipulation of the EU by France for its own ends, a classic example being the CAP. Rather than a plot, the Eurocrisis has meant that Germany has been reluctantly dragged kicking and screaming into the current limelight primarily because it holds by far the biggest chequebook.

If the EU was really a German plot then this Eurocrisis would not exist. Instead we would have a fiscal union dominated by Germany, playing by German rules, solving at a stroke the fundamental flaws in the currency - the markets would be popping champagne corks.

However we have a crisis because she is doing precisely the opposite. Germany faces an impossible choice between accepting fiscal union, and thus giving up sovereignty (which the German Constitutional Court has ruled illegal) or facing the breakup of the Euro resulting in it being a pariah in the EU - taking the blame for its collapse. Damned if she does, damned if she doesn't.

All of this 'Nazi' blame game though conveniently overlooks the fact the real enemy lies elsewhere. It doesn't reside in Berlin, nor Paris, but in London - Whitehall. The EU never attacked our castle walls with copious Trebuchets and forced entry, instead we lowered the drawbridge, lifted the portcullis and invited them in. Not only that, we also laid on the biggest banquets, gave them the best rooms and told them that they could stay as long as they liked.

One of the first rules of battle is to know your enemy, and if we can't even get past that then we are doomed to lose the war (oops did I mention the war?).

3 Days After Remembrance Sunday

2011-11-16T18:21:00.004Z

A major European country ceases to be democratic (my emphasis):

Italy Prime Minister-designate Mario Monti on Wednesday unveiled his new cabinet to deal with his country’s debt crisis.
The former EU commissioner named himself as Italy’s new economy minister.

Monti’s cabinet does not contain a single elected politician.

His ministers are drawn from the worlds of finance, academia, and law.

The 68-year-old does have the support of all major political parties.

Only the right-wing Northern League has refused to back him.

Monti must win a vote of confidence in both houses of parliament before he can officially take office.

Wearing a poppy means bugger all, the best way to honour those who gave their lives for 'their tomorrows' is to continue the everlasting fight to preserve freedom and democracy:

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same." - Ronald Reagan

Facts - Up In Smoke

2011-11-16T17:33:00.002Z

I, personally, don't smoke, never have - my vice of choice is ale. My wife does though or more accurately she did until she gave up for the second time a couple of months ago. I don't like my wife smoking, she knows that but ultimately it's her decision and I leave it at that.

Yet it was with some irritation to both of us that BBC Breakfast this morning had as their main headline news a report from the British Medical Association that smoking should be banned in cars. Funnily enough when it comes to smoking, any civil liberty or freedom is too much - we've been here before. As Velvet Glove, Iron Fist correctly predicted yesterday, it's ground hog day:

Word has it that the British Medical Association is going to have another stab at campaigning for a smoking ban in cars today. This is turning into an biannual crusade and I don't have any more to say about it than I did in all these previous posts.

Yep, an organisation with vested interests on a regular basis releases a press statement that is regurgitated verbatim and with enthusiasm by the BBC without critical comment. The same old weary pattern seen with many other issues such as minimum pricing on alcohol and obesity. As VGIF points out, the report is inaccurate at best.

It really is pathetic. And not just the BBC, the lies were repeated right across the MSM. It's no wonder why me and many others have stopped listening to them. It's bloggers - the voices of little (unpaid) guys that are filling the void - the MSM is becoming irrelevant and are writing themselves out of the script.

Shooting Up The Priority List

2011-11-16T15:05:00.006Z

One of the most common arguments against a referendum, or discussion on the EU, is that it doesn't register in the list of voters' concerns. That of course overlooks the fact that 99% of issues in the top ten of voters' concerns do involved the EU in one way or another - to paraphrase Lord of The Rings; one issue rules them all - and that this logic never applies to climate change.

However leaving all that aside, the latest YouGov poll shows that Europe is now seen as the 3rd most important issue facing country (click to enlarge):

As I've blogged before, this was always going to happen - the Euro crisis has simply brought the inevitable forward. So no longer can this be treated as a fringe issue, and no longer can our political class ignore it. The EU nettle simply has to be grasped and hilariously it's happened on Cameron's watch.

A Little Bit Pregnant?

2011-11-15T18:46:00.005Z

Englands Freedome, Souldiers Rights has a superb post highlighting that the position of EU membership just doesn't affect the Tories but all of the political class - namely that they still want membership of the EU but try their best to disguise it to the electorate:

So Labour have decided to re-badge themselves as quasi -Euro-sceptics.

Should I point out the depth of their collective treason and unexpungable guilt?

They are still, however, defending their criminal theft of the referendum they promised us, and still all members of the anti-democracy, anti-sovereignty, pro-Brussels faction, but they are aware that their position is unpopular. They need to reposition, all the better to betray the people.

Hence this recent talk about ‘re-negotiation’ and ‘no further transfers of power’, ‘repatriation of powers’ etc. The aim is to craft a third way between sovereignty and the destruction of sovereignty. It goes without saying that there is no such third way.

There are, certainly, a handful of stalwarts in the Party, such as Kate Hoey and Austin Mitchell who have been vilified for years. All the rest are party hacks and traitors. See what Douglas Alexander says:
"There's even a tendency … to say people keep rejecting pro-European propositions because they aren't proposed in a pro-European enough way."
Really? A tendency? Well, there you have it. Our enemies don’t like being burdened by defending the status quo. They want to have their cake and eat it too. They don’t want to deal with the reality, but keep focused on the long-term goal of continent-wide Empire.

As EFSR rightly argues there is no third way between being sovereign or not sovereign. Europhiles like to argue about the sharing (or pooling) of sovereignty but it is a concept which is akin to saying you're a little bit pregnant.

So we go through the same old boring tedious game again - when in opposition parties pretend to be 'eurosecptic' then as soon as elected they say; "yes EU, no EU, three bags full" etc. The dividing line between left and right no longer exists in politics, it's now a line between us and them.

"I'm Mad"

2011-11-15T15:28:00.002Z

Despite the EU's overtly anti-democratic manoeuvres last week to tell Italy and Greece what Government they should have, it hasn't worked - the Euro crisis continues unabated, contagion has hit Spain, France and Belgium. It's getting to the point where it's easier to list the Eurozone countries that aren't in trouble.

It's clear that the EU or member states cannot take the necessary measures to stem the crisis - they are sleepwalking into Euro meltdown where the consequences will be massive but are largely unpredictable.

I should be magnanimous in these times, but I'm afraid I can't be. I don't for one minute enjoy the consequences of the chaos on the impact on jobs and the economy but what is amusing is the ever desperate rhetoric from those that have always supported the Euro - Nick Clegg (my emphasis):

It means absolutely nothing to millions of people across the EU who are worried about economic security. They are worried about prospects for their children. The only people who will benefit will be populists, chauvinists and demagogues, who will exploit that lack of political leadership."

Oh here we go - more labels, more insults. This is why, after decades of abuse for trying to argue against a flawed system of government and currency thus being inundated with abuse I have little sympathy. The battle against the EU has largely been a lonely and hostile one - those in favour refusing to engage in debate but instead chuck insults about like cheap confetti at a wedding.

So it is with some amusement that I read this post from the Europhile blog EU Weekly:

I am mad and disappointed.

I am mad at an half finished euro, which has been created without any sort of exit close in the treaty – Not that I ever wish for such a close to be used, just that it is a good sign of a well thought project to have an end-point ready, just in case.

I am mad at an over-optimistic eurozone that accepted Greece despite its lag in matching the growth and stability criteria and continued to ignore the obvious reality as long as things were looking OK and the illusion could be held.

I am mad because the euro is not just a great project or a nice dream. It has become a reality, it has been built upon and brought successful growth and integration among the european states. The euro add solid results and consequences making it impossible to be dismantled or even weaken. It has to be saved, rebuild, made stronger… there is no other options.

That’s why more than anything I am mad and disappointed at the European leaders who fail again and again to tackle the problem and do what is needed to make the euro as strong as it is supposed to be. Every major actor of the financial world agrees to say that the best option is to go forward into a federalist union with eurobonds as the core of the public debt for member states, but all that Merkozy et al. are doing is finding workarounds to the issue, half-fixing the problem for a few months.

It reads like a perestroika advocate within the Soviet Union - believing that the system is fine; it just needs a little retuning.

No. The EU is flawed, it's conception was flawed, the Euro is flawed, everything about it is flawed. In years to come, when the EU and the Euro has collapsed, historians will wonder with bemusement how earth did we fall for this trick for so long?

Spot The Difference?

2011-11-15T12:47:00.007Z

Magritte's famous painting "This is not a pipe"

And:

"The famous pipe. How people reproached me for it! And yet, could you stuff my pipe? No, it's just a representation, is it not? So if I had written on my picture "This is a pipe," I'd have been lying" - Magritte

More Tory Delusion

2011-11-15T10:22:00.002Z

Of all the bloggers I least expected to fall for the; "Tories are Eurosceptics" guff, it was the usually erudite Cranmer. But no, it seems even blind party loyalty gets to him (or deluded stupidity, I'm not sure which). The arguments he uses are well-worn and somewhat tedious so I'm not going to fisk them here in detail. Suffice to say he argues; that the Tories are really eurosceptic, that UKIP prevents a Eurosceptic Tory Government, that UKIP supporters are really Tories and so on. This blog has countered these arguments many times before as have others.

Yet it never ceases to amaze me how after 40 years of evidence to the contrary that some still believe the Tories are sceptical. I wonder how much more obvious do they need to be to prove that they're not? Not only do they willing pick up the soap but they offer to build the shower in the first place.

I think the key to Cranmer's position lies in the first couple of sentences:

Have you noticed that UKIP is about to replace the LibDems as the UK’s third party? Apparently, they are now regularly polling a 7 per cent approval rating, just a tantalising single point behind the LibDems.

That UKIP has gone from a standing start to being nearly the third party in less than 20 years is a remarkable achievement. Personally I believe they should be doing much better, but that is for another blog post. But at least it demonstrates, with the recent outbursts, that Tories are rattled.

However instead of listening, Cranmer demonstrates clearly the default Tory position - wagon circling and repeating tired lame anti-UKIP messages, little realising that on a whole host of issues, the Tories, and indeed the whole political class, stick to a consensus that isn't matched by the British people. Nature abhors a vacuum and UKIP (partly) fills that vacuum.

And as the collapse of the EU continues, the Tories will still be reciting the same old messages that they've being doing for years - as if stuck in a time warp, despite that the rise of UKIP shows that it is not working.

It won't be UKIP that kills off the Conservative Party, instead the Conservative Party will kill itself off.

For Your Tomorrow We Gave Our Today

2011-11-11T12:07:00.002Z

When you go home
Tell them of us and say
For your tomorrow
We gave our today

Name That Picture

2011-11-11T11:59:00.001Z

An A-level in Art and Art history comes in useful sometimes then.

A Non Story?

2011-11-10T19:15:00.002Z

The Daily Mail reports:

Commuters in 4x4 vehicles are demanding larger railway station car park spaces so they can avoid being fined for straying over the white lines.

Irate commuters at Didcot Parkway railway station in Oxfordshire say parking bays are too small for their cars.

Motorists who have complained most drive the expensive up-market Range Rover models, which are popular in rural Oxfordshire.

Interesting...because Didcot is my local station which I use very regularly for work and travelling to football. The only issue of parking that has ever cropped up in my local paper, to my knowledge is one of a lack of spaces, not the size of them - an issue epitomised by the demolition of a grade 2 listed pub to make way for extra parking - strangely enough the Daily Mail has never highlighted that.

Now, Didcot Parkway is undergoing a bit of a revamp at the moment on the forecourt - the taxi rank is being moved, more spaces are being made available for drop-off and for disabled travellers etc. None of this is of course mentioned in the piece. Didcot Parkway also has at least four separate car parks (including one very large one), as fitting for a 'parkway' but it's hard to know by the Mail report which car park they refer to.

However a quick search shows this on the BBC local site yesterday:

People parking at an Oxfordshire car park say they are being fined for not keeping within the white lines.

The size of the spaces at Didcot Parkway railway station, on Foxhall Road, are unconfirmed but some commuters claim they are too small.

Ah the Mail have nicked the story from elsewhere, a story which refers to a carpark that has been there longer than I have (over 10 years) and whose parking space sizes have remained unchanged since. The space sizes are no different to the local supermarket ones and certainly they are wider than the ones in a nearby shopping centre.

So this leads me onto the quotes that help 'colour' the article:

One commuter, Penny Reid, from Wantage, drives a Land Rover Freelander and recently received an £80 Civil Parking Notice at the car park.

She said: 'I can fit within the space, I'm a good parker - but if there is a car parked next to me I can't get out.'

"I can fit within the space" So why did Penny get a ticket for not doing so? Hmm. Then...

Edward Hanrahan, from East Hendred, Oxfordshire, regularly parks his Audi A4, which he describes as a 'medium sized car', at Didcot Parkway.

He said: 'I got an £80 parking ticket, then three weeks later when I hadn't paid it I got a final demand and a doubling of the payment.

'Since then I've had another demand from a solicitor and debt collectors - it's all just scare-mongering.'

I've parked an Audi A4 (courtesy car) in that particular carpark, no problems, yet Edward got an £80 parking ticket - for what? The piece doesn't specifically say. (and he admits he didn't pay, or possibly challenge it)

It seems that the Mail have embossed a non story with a '4*4' in rural Oxfordshire slant, chucking in easy quotes from a couple of disgruntled motorists.

I have sympathy that some parking attendants can be over-zealous, but it becomes laughable when trying to defend what is essentially a non-story by describing Didcot as a rustic rural place - when it has one of these beauties residing on its doorstep.

But then we've been here before with the Daily Mail.

Don't Laugh

2011-11-10T16:19:00.003Z

Romanian president Traian Basescu still wants to take his country into the Euro. Apparently he told journalists not to laugh:

We want to join the eurozone in 2015. Please don't laugh. We do not believe in a fragmented Europe. Romania supports the process of integration.

The ludicrousness of that statement reminds me of the mid 90's track Don't laugh by Josh Wink which about half-way through encourages you to do preciously the opposite.

A New Phase

2011-11-10T08:47:00.003Z

Just my luck, on the day the Eurozone entered a new and more dangerous phase - yields on Italian Bonds smashing through the psychologically important 7% figure yesterday - I found myself on family business which meant I had no internet access.

Not so much as hit the buffers, the Eurozone has instead crashed right through them, as Italy enters bailout territory. One problem, it's too big to bailout. To illustrate the seriousness of this new phase, an orderly breakup of the Euro is now being seriously discussed, in effect jettisoning the peripheral countries and France and Germany going for a smaller Eurozone. But, given the glacial speed of EU decisions, events look set to overtake them - contagion is already reaching Spain and France today. It looks set to be another bloodbath.

One thing's for sure, we are witnessing European history in the making.

Liberal And Democratic?

2011-11-08T15:23:00.002Z

This tweet, from Sunny Hundal, tells you all need to know about the Liberal 'left' view of democracy:

Basically bollocks to Italian voters.

Groundhog Week

2011-11-07T12:15:00.005Z

Rumours are now swirling about that Italian Prime Minister, Berlusconi, is going to resign, then it was denied, then confirmed again. I'm not so sure, whatever Berlusconi is, he is a political survivor - still PM despite scandal and numerous trials.

What odds on that he announces a referendum soon or decides to pull out of the Euro altogether as a last desperate measure?

That Euro Crisis (Again)

2011-11-07T11:10:00.001Z

The events in Greece are now a sideshow as the Euro crisis moves to Rome. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose to a euro-era high of 6.6% - this is dangerously near bailout territory. And given that Italy is the 3rd largest economy in the Eurozone, a crisis there is a whole different ball game to Greece.

Talks of a possible Euro breakup are now openingly being discussed as German tour operator TUI writes to hoteliers demanding that they agree to renegotiate contracts in Greece's old currency - the drachma.

There are conspiracy theories this morning that the pressure on Italian bonds is being used to force the removal of Berlusconi. The collapse of the Italian government would bring relief to the markets. That a government collapse could help market confidence is a strong indication of how bad this crisis is. I'm not so sure about the conspiracy theories, my feeling is that the crisis is starting to snowball, to escalate out of control towards its inevitable conclusion; that the markets no longer believe (rightly) that the EU has the capacity to solve the problem. We can only wait and see.

But don't worry the EU have everything in hand, their solution? To announce another Eurozone crisis meeting. On November 17th.

The Tory Delusion

2011-11-05T16:56:00.009Z

The blog The View from Cullingworth has a post titled Why UKIP members should join the Conservative Party. It contains the usual Tory clichés which have been wheeled out for years if not decades. I posted a lengthy comment in response (Now approved) which I reproduce here:

If I may, as a UKIP supporter, I would like to respond to a number of points that you raise in your post.

Firstly I get the impression that you're implying that UKIP is an exile party for former Tories. This is simply not the case. It derives its support right across the political spectrum. For example one of its heartlands is in the South West which is Lib Dem territory and one of UKIP's best recent performances was in Barnsley - a Labour stronghold. Asking UKIP members who used to be Lib Dem or Labour to vote Tory is a bit of a long shot to say the least. I personally have never voted Tory and am very unlikely to ever do so.

The second point I would like to make is the loose term of the word Eurosceptic - it is a term that is often misused. The vast majority of Tories want to stay in the EU.

You write "that half the backbenches in parliament supported an in/out referendum reflects that fact" That is not entirely true, the motion also contained an option to "repatriate powers" which means continuing membership - this what attracted backbencher support. The vast majority of Tory MPs agree with this latter option as indicated by your comment here: "My Party becomes more opposed to the continuation of EU integration with each passing day."

Repatriation of powers, though technically possible is not going to happen. Technically it's possible for me to land on the moon but the chances of it happening is precisely zero. Arguing for repatriation woefully misunderstands 'ever closer union' and the process of acquis communautaire. Euroscepticism is a term used to try to keep the Tory faithful on board while keeping EU membership - it is a deception.

And that leads me on to my third and more important point - that the Tories are not eurosceptic.

Andrew Carnegie once said “As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.”. This most definitely applies to Tories. In nearly 40 years, despite the rhetoric, they have:
Entered the EEC on a lie (read the 1971 internal document FCO 30/1048)
Campaigned in the 1975 referendum for a yes vote, including Thatcher
Passed the Single European Act
Shadowed the Deutschmark in preparation to enter the ERM.
Entered the ERM which directly lead to the early '90s recession
Passed the Maastricht Treaty
Have become, in Roger Helmer's words the most pro-EU government ever, since elected in 2010.
Actions speak louder than words and no amount of rhetoric can cover the fact that the Tories cannot wait to constantly integrate further.

To use a football analogy; I have supported my team for over 25 years, in that time I've criticised players, managers and the board but every year I still renew my season ticket. That makes me a supporter not a sceptic. And the same is true of Tories, despite the criticism of some aspects of the EU, when that EU season ticket renewal comes up they gleefully renew. They are supporters not sceptics.

Then there's this comment: So long as UKIP leaches those votes, there will not be such a majority and we'll remain on that seemingly inexorable course to a federal Europe. Leaving aside the question of 'Tories are Euroscpetic' as countered above this assertion has been my experience for a long time as a PPC and a local candidate. Tories have a habit of accusing UKIP of 'stealing our votes' or 'splitting the vote so Labour gets in'. Not mine or UKIPs problem I'm afraid, party polices are rather like goods in a shop, if no one wants to buy them that's the shop's fault not the customers. The solution to the Tories haemorrhaging voters and members is to look in the mirror.

And it's for those reasons that I will never support them or any other of the main parties.

Update: Simon Cooke (Magus), author of the post, has tweeted rather weakly, in my view, that all of his comments miss the point. In what way? I'm happy to be corrected. I suspect I won't be because, rather than miss the point, the comments tell an inconvenient truth.

Confusion (2)

2011-11-03T15:56:00.006Z

The Mail doesn't know its (stage) left from right (circled - click to enlarge):

Confusion

2011-11-03T14:13:00.004Z

I meant to write a blog about today's G20 summit and the continuing Eurozone crisis, but events are moving so fast that I can't keep up at the moment. For a number of hours now we have had reports that Greece's PM George Papandreou has resigned, then oh no he hasn't, then oh yes he has ...and so on. And it's not even pantomime season yet.

Also Italian bonds continue to rise to record levels, as Italian politics is in a bit of turmoil. France and Spanish bonds have also risen. Van Rompuy and Barroso can't decide whether to hold a press conference or not. The sleepwalking into chaos continues.

Meanwhile a rather revealing twitter exchange between myself and pro-EU Telegraph journalist Daniel Knowles. I was simply arguing for an orderly break-up of the euro - the only realistic option left to prevent a chaotic collapse. This response below from Daniel was rapidly deleted, but I have a screenprint:

"You people"? Hmm interesting. And then the follow up:

What is really dangerous is that the Euro is heading rather rapidly for a disorderly collapse because no-one will make any of the very difficult decisions required to stabilise the crisis. When the collapse happens Mr Knowles will then find out what the words idealistic and extreme really means.

Germans Say Nein To Greek Football

2011-11-02T21:29:00.002Z

From Greek paper Ekathimerini:

The German soccer federation suddenly informed its Greek counterpart on November 2 that it cannot host Greece's friendly game with Romania at Reutlingen on November 15 «for security reasons."
Greece had arranged the friendly in Germany in order to satisfy the huge demand by Greek expatriates to see their national team play, but less than two weeks before the match, the DFB told EPO it could not stage it after all, according to an EPO statement on Wednesday.

How strange...or maybe not:

The German federation's decision came just 24 hours after the Champions League game between local Borussia and Olympiakos at Dortmund with some 4,000 Greek fans in the stands whose behavior could not be faulted.
Speculation in Athens suggested that the decision may be down to the political uncertainty in Greece that could turn the match into a demonstration, although that appears to be quite far-fetched.

It is also likely that the German federation was upset by the behavior of Olympiakos fans in Piraeus during the home game against Borussia on October 19, as they produced a banner (pictured above) that appeared to be offensive to Germany.

EU harmony continuing as normal...

Greece Will Vote Yes

2011-11-02T17:43:00.005Z

The referendum question according to the FT has been decided, and as expected it will be couched in terms of EU membership not the bailout itself (my emphasis):

Greek voters would be asked not to approve or reject the terms for Greece’s next financial rescue, which European leaders set at a Brussels summit last week, but a broader question centred on support for Greece’s membership of the European Union and 17-nation eurozone.

Greek enthusiasm for EU membership runs at more than 72% - George Papandreou will win the vote. Like most referendums it's going to be rigged.

A Question

2011-11-02T10:40:00.004Z

As the Greek referendum fallout continues, (Richard North has excellent analysis of Papandreou's strategy), a thought has occurred to me. Will the Greeks even know what bailout package they'll be voting on given that it doesn't actually exist yet?

The deal announced to great fanfare last Thursday was vague, and short on details. The details have yet to be hammered out on the banks agreeing to voluntary haircuts, on leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) effectively to a trillion euros, who pays, and whether the bank recapitalization program is even sufficient.

And EU finance ministers are not expected to agree on these nitty-gritty elements of how the EFSF will work until sometime in November, with the exact date not fixed. It is probable that agreement on it and other elements of the deal will drag on longer maybe into next year (if at all).

As the referendum might take place as early as December, the Greeks may end up effectively voting on a deal that no-one knows what it is.

Another Greek Surprise

2011-11-01T18:59:00.001Z

The Guardian, links to a report from Athens Times that the top officials in the Greek military have been replaced today in a 'surprise' move:

In a surprise move, the defence minister proposed on Tuesday evening the complete replacement of the country’s top brass.

At an extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the prime minister and other key cabinet members, Defence Minister Panos Beglitis proposed the following changes to the army, navy and air force and the general staff:

General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant General Michalis Kostarakos
Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias
Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal Antonis Tsantirakis
Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis
It is understood that the personnel changes took many members of the government and of the armed forces by surprise.

As a consequence there's much speculation that it is being done to prevent a military coup. However there's no indication yet that a military coup is on the cards, though given the financial turmoil in Greece and that its Government is close to collapse this evening, nothing can be ruled out. Also EUobserver reported this morning:

There are other signs the government is losing control.

In recent weeks, members of the Greek police forces have also protested against the troika outside EU offices and French and German embassies, while retired army officers stormed the Greek defence ministry.

Defence minister Panagiotis Beglitis in October warned that the Greek military establishment is a "state within the state."

On Tuesday, he convened an unscheduled meeting of the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence, the supreme decision-making body on national defense.

According to sources within the ministry quoted by Greek daily Eleftherotypia, Beglitis is planning to replace the leadership of the military with "his own people." Unnamed officials described his actions as "politically mad" and "militarily dangerous."

One interesting question, posed before on this blog, if Greece does become a military dictatorship (again) will the EU throw it out because it fails its democratic criteria? And what of its membership of the Euro?

Interesting times.

Have Your Say...

2011-11-01T12:00:00.004Z

...on whether Greece should have their say. The Guardian wins the 'ironic piece of the day' award:

You can vote here on whether the Greeks should be allowed to...er vote.

That Bombshell

2011-11-01T11:27:00.006Z

I wrote yesterday's post about the referendum proposal in Greece in a bit of a hurry. Partly because I was at work when the news came through on my phone and partly because it was such a bolt from the blue. It completely surprised everyone even George Papandreou's own parliamentarians. But whatever the reasons behind his decision, much amusement can be had from the obvious sheer terror he invoked across the EU. Daniel Hannan writes:

I wish I could convey the sheer writhing horror that George Papanderou's referendum proposal has provoked in Brussels. Eurocrats instinctively dislike referendums. They feel that their work is too important and complicated to be vulnerable to the prejudices of hoi polloi.

A referendum at any time would be regarded by European leaders as irresponsible. But a referendum when the euro is teetering on the brink is seen as the height of ingratitude, selfishness and recklessness.

Wondrous joy. As expected the markets this morning have taken on a plummet trajectory - over two months of uncertainty now lie ahead until the vote. That Greece will default is a given, the markets have priced that in; how and when are the key questions. Now with the referendum there's another possibility that's been thrown into the mix, that in the event of a no vote that Greece could not only exit the Euro but possibly the EU altogether.

And it's the last point that means a Greek no vote is not a certainty.

Firstly it will significantly depend on the referendum question asked. If the question is along the lines of the bailout package itself and more austerity then a no vote is a likely outcome. However if the question is couched in terms of a no vote meaning exit from the Euro and the EU, and I suspect strongly that this will be the case, then the outcome is far from certain. Not only do referendums tend to favour the status quo but much scaremongering will be deployed - Greece leaving 'will be a disaster' they will cry.

Secondly the EU will use every tactic in the book; blackmail, threats, coercion and bribes. They have form on this - Lisbon, Ireland anyone? Then there's the infamous EU's last resort of; 'wrong answer vote again'.

A no answer is not guaranteed by any means.

What Papandreou has done though is start a risk of contagion of similar demands in other countries. Already, after last week's deal, Spain, Portugal and Ireland started making noises about getting more concessions from the EU as Zerohedge highlights:

...just as expected, the weakest PIIGS - Portugal and Ireland - wasted no time to start rumblings about a "suddenly slowing economy" in the aftermath of the Greek bail out which achieved nothing but to delay contagion by 48 hours and to unleash demands by everyone else to get the same concessions, in essence pushing Europe into an even deeper hole...

Confirming that the tsunami of demands has been unleashed is today's announcement from the Bank of Spain that not only was Q3 GDP flat (read: negative), but that the deficit target for the year would not be achieved.

How long before they start to make threats of referendums as well?

Another pressing problem is Italy, here the Eurozone has real immediate problems. I suspect that Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos's hospitalisation due to stress related health problems won't be the last amongst Eurozone politicians.

Greece Calls A Referendum

2011-10-31T18:12:00.006Z

On top of soaring unsustainable Italian bond yields today, we also have the Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, announcing a referendum on the new EU aid package:

"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgement, we believe in their decision," he told ruling socialist party lawmakers.
Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit agreement on a new 130 billion euro bailout package as negative or probably negative, a survey showed on Saturday.

Ha ha cats and pigeons spring to mind. The markets will likely go mad tomorrow. Also adds extra pressure onto Cameron regarding a referendum - this EU issue is not going away is it 'call me Dave'?

Tory MP Changes Vote For A Tenner

2011-10-31T10:25:00.001Z

Politicalbetting picks up on this story from yesterday's Mail:

One Eurosceptic Tory had an unusual reason for abstaining in the vote on an EU referendum: he didn’t want to lose a bet.

Convinced that the rebellion would fizzle out, he had made a wager with a fellow sceptic that fewer than 60 Tories would vote against the Government.

The deal was that, for every rebel over the magic number, he would have to pay his colleague £10 and vice versa. When he walked down to the division lobbies last Monday night, he was taken aback by how many Tory MPs were defying the whips. He calculated that he must be a couple of hundred quid down and decided to abstain.

‘I was buggered if I was going to give him another tenner,’ he joked.

But the two sides in the debate had no idea what his motivations were for not voting. They both desperately tried to cajole him into supporting them as he sat on the Commons’ green leather benches during the division. Even the Chancellor, George Osborne, got in on the act, pushing him to back the Government.

This MP’s behaviour adds a whole new meaning to the phrase 'taking a gamble on Britain's future'.

I'm not sure what to make of this. There's a couple of lines that suggest he was mischievously joking to the journalist, or perhaps he was got at by the whips and so used a flippant story as cover for his lack of bottle. Or maybe it is indeed true, that he changed his vote, on a subject of national importance, to minimise his betting loses - to save 10 pounds.

If true it means a Tory MP was prepared to sell this country's future for a tenner.

Another Warning

2011-10-30T13:23:00.002Z

In this weekend's papers the Euro crisis rumbles on despite Cameron's attempts to try to change the narrative. Cameron wants to leave the EU issue alone, but the EU is not going to leave him alone any time soon. Christopher Booker writes that "the project is slowly heading for very messy and prolonged disintegration" and it won't do that quietly. Far from it.

So while Cameron and his merry band of Europlastics prattle on about 'repatriation of powers'; a complete non-starter as the ever excellent Richard North points out, the Euro crisis continues to pull the EU down a gurgling plug hole. And the consequences of a chaotic, yet increasingly inevitable, breakup will not be good as this piece by Liam Halligan in the Telegraph argues. Liam is unconvinced by the latest 'extend and pretend' bailout package:

Far from making the situation clearer, allowing investors to make considered assessments, this latest announcement made Western Europe's grotesque debt crisis even more acute, sowing further infectious spores of confusion.

By late Thursday...and certainly on Friday, the warning signs were there. Global bond markets, by character more sober and smarter than the excitable equity guys, were voting against the deal. This is alarming. For it is only by selling more bonds that the eurozone's deeply indebted governments can roll-over their enormous liabilities and keep the show on the road.

And then comes the warning, that we are heading towards significant and serious civil unrest at the least:

Let's be clear – if global bond markets stop lending to a number of large Western economies, we are in the realms of unpaid state wages and pensions, transport chaos and closures of schools and hospitals – sparking the prospect of serious civil unrest. Forgive my intemperate tone, but these are the dangers we face. And I'm afraid the only rational response to Thursday's announcement is that the probability of such undesirable outcomes has just been increased.

Liam rightly argues that the only practical solution to the crisis is an orderly breakup of the Euro, but that ain't gonna happen (my emphasis):

The eurocrats, of course, lack the guts to trim back monetary union to a more manageable size. Too much face would be lost. So "euroquake" fears, once viewed as outlandish, are gaining pace. Despite Thursday's deal, and all the reassurances of a "durable solution", the Italian government on Friday paid 6.06pc for 10-year money, up from just 5.86pc a month ago and a euro-era high. Such borrowing costs are disastrous, given that Rome must roll-over €300bn of its €1,900bn debt in 2012 alone. A default by Italy...would make Lehman look like a picnic.

Gulp! In truth there's little in the piece that isn't anything that this, and many other blogs, haven't said for months if not years. But at least some sections of the MSM are starting to wake up, though almost certainly it's too little, too late.

Update: Just seen that Autonomous Mind has a piece on the make up of the next European War; between the politicians and the people. Warnings are coming in thick and fast.

It Didn't Even Last 2 Days

2011-10-28T14:50:00.000+01:00

The latest EU 'deal', which agreed basically nothing, has succumbed to the law of diminishing returns. Designed to reassure the markets, it has failed to even last 2 days. Italy's bonds are still rising to dangerous levels - in short the markets are unconvinced by the EU package.

In a masterpiece of understatement, Annalisa Piazza, a fixed-income strategist at Newedge Group in London said:

“All in all, today’s [Italian bond] auction was not very satisfying,”

Then in a further twist:

A new obstacle to solving Europe's debt problems - already!

Germany's constitutional court has suspended the right of a small parliamentary committee to approve urgent actions required by the eurozone bail-out fund.

The court said it will investiagte whether using the small committee to decide EFSF matters infringed the rights of other politicians.

The nine-member group was set up to get decisions passed more quickly - however there is growing anger among German politicians and voters that they are being dragged into bailing out other nations with little or no consultation.

Reuters reports that the court's suspension of the smalll committee means the EFSF won't be able to start buying bonds in the secondary market because purchases must be agreed in secret, and the full German parliament can't meet in secret.

That leaves the ECB carrying the responsibility for buying Spanish and Italian bonds for a bit longer...

Oh and Portugal's buggered as well:

Monetary contraction in Portugal has intensified at an alarming pace and is mimicking the pattern seen in Greece before its economy spiralled out of control, raising concerns that the EU summit deal may soon washed over by fast-moving events.

Oh and Belgium:

Belgium’s economic expansion stalled in the third quarter as European leaders struggled to contain a worsening debt crisis amid signs the region is heading toward a recession.

And so on...

Talk Is Cheap

2011-10-27T11:01:00.004+01:00

“As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.” Andrew Carnegie.

From the Mail:

This is the same chap who voted against a referendum, voted to throw more of our money away at the Eurozone, voted for EU scrutiny of our budget and voted to approve of the Lisbon Treaty.

That Deal (2)

2011-10-27T09:24:00.002+01:00

Again, according Zerohedge, the EU's numbers don't add up (this is where the July bailout deal fell apart). The proposed 50% haircut on Greek debt (which hasn't even been agreed yet) is not even 50% but only 28%. Here's his post in full (his emphasis):

Just the math, something Europe is unable to do:

Greece has €350 billion in total debt including about €70 billion in Troika "post-petition" loans; these are untouched.
Of the €280 billion, roughly €75 billion is held by the ECB: this, like the Troika loans, will be untouched.
This leaves just ~€200 billion in actual debt to undergo a haircut.
Apply a 50% haircut to this debt (ignoring the fact that of this about €35 billion is held by Greek pension funds, and once the realization that Greek pensions have been cut in half dawns upon the population, the result will be the biggest riots ever seen in Athens yet).
Total debt to be cut: just about €100 billion.
Hence, of the total €350 billion, just €100 billion is eliminated, most of it used to backstop and service Greek pension and retirement obligations
€250, or the residual, of €350, the original, means 72%, or a 28% haircut.
Greek GDP was €230 billion on December 31, 2010 and declining fast.
And that is how a 50% haircut is "cut" almost in half

But no worries, shares are all up strongly this morning, so everything must be rosy in the garden.

That Deal

2011-10-27T08:34:00.004+01:00

When the EU announces a deal as substantial, vital and ambitious, you know it means precisely the opposite. And so it proves with the latest outcome of the crisis talks. One of the big' measures apparently is that private banks holding Greek debt accept a 50% loss. However the key passage, number 12, states (my emphasis throughout):

The Private Sector Involvement (PSI) has a vital role in establishing the sustainability of the Greek debt. Therefore we welcome the current discussion between Greece and its private investors to find a solution for a deeper PSI. Together with an ambitious reform programme for the Greek economy, the PSI should secure the decline of the Greek debt to GDP ratio with an objective of reaching 120% by 2020. To this end we invite Greece, private investors and all parties concerned to develop a voluntary bond exchange with a nominal discount of 50% on notional Greek debt held by private investors. The Euro zone Member States would contribute to the PSI package up to 30 bn euro. On that basis, the official sector stands ready to provide additional programme financing of up to 100 bn euro until 2014, including the required recapitalisation of Greek banks. The new programme should be agreed by the end of 2011 and the exchange of bonds should be implemented at the beginning of 2012. We call on the IMF to continue to contribute to the financing of the new Greek programme.

Words like; "We welcome", "we invite", "voluntary". 'In other words they've agreed bugger all. Talks are ongoing and the details haven't yet been agreed upon (if they ever will).

Nevermind the markets naturally will be initially happy, then how long before it all unravels again?

Thank You Germany

2011-10-26T18:05:00.000+01:00

I've just got back, so I'm trawling through today's events regarding the Euro crisis - I hope to expand on this later. It's difficult, amongst the noise, to come to any immediate conclusions but it seems that the farce of non agreement continues.

One piece worth reading is this by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph, in which he argues that we should be grateful to the Germans. I concur completely, it is with deep irony that the Germans are the only ones in Europe that are prepared to prevent the rest of us suffering from tyranny. As Monday demonstrates, given half the chance our MPs in Westminster would hand over our country, sovereignty, cheque book and democracy, lock stock and barrel to the EU if they thought they could get away with it:

Die Linke (Left) leader Gregor Gysi was electrifying. "It is the arrogance of power," he began, and never let go.

"Every week you come up with a different story about this crisis."

"We were told there would be no leverage and you have reversed everything in a matter of weeks. Now we learn that the 20pc loss will fall entirely on taxpayers. They alone will pay. That is the decision you are taking."
Green leader Jürgen Trittin rebuked Dr Merkel for hiding the true implications of EFSF leverage, particularly the plan to insure the first 20pc of losses on Club Med bonds.

"Why are you shying away from telling the people the truth? You must tell people what this leverage means. You must explain to them what the risk is, and why it is necessary. But you wriggled out of it."

"You came here three weeks ago and said there would be no leverage. This is the sort of thing that unnerves people."

And so it went on, raw red-blooded democracy.

This afternoon, after a jolly at the cinema I took my wife to the John Radcliffe hospital in Oxford for her regular consultation with her neurologist. After the usual discussions about her health, we got onto Monday's vote as part of small talk while she went to be scanned. "I've just joined the TA" he says without prompting. I ask him why. "because very soon I want to be on the right end of a gun". This was the view of a consultant Doctor, in the NHS. Worrying times.

Quote Of The Day

2011-10-26T17:36:00.004+01:00

Confirmation that many Tories are Europlastics and have no interest in getting us out of the EU:

One 2010 rebel confessed the vote was about more than Europe. The MP said:

“I’m actually not particularly anti-European. If there was a referendum tomorrow, I’d vote to stay in. Supporting the motion was partly about keeping faith with the people who sent me here and partly about taking a swing at No 10.”

Update: Just seen WfW has posted on the same thing.

Quite Mad

2011-10-26T09:55:00.000+01:00

As predicted by anyone who is 'barking mad' it would seem that today's crucial EU meeting, which apparently would solve all the EU's problems' will end with ...er...well nothing resolved at all. Actually they can't even do the fudge bit right - it's collapsing in chaos. The Telegraph reports:

...leaders last night appeared to be little closer to settling their long-standing differences on those issues.

That firmly comes under the category of no shit Sherlock. But don't worry chaps, we have another meeting this weekend. So that's now a meeting about a meeting about a meeting. I think. I've lost count.

All of which is highly reassuring when, the Italian Government is close to collapse, Italian bond spreads are once again approaching the danger levels of 6%, Portugal is entering Greece territory, Greece is about to default, French banks are on the verge of collapsing and we're about to thrown more good money after bad. At least EU leaders still can find some time to indulge in a spot of personal recriminations. Following on from Berlusconi's insult, Sarkozy has waded in too:

"...she is on a diet and then helps herself to a second helping of cheese"

That would be the 6"4, adonis, David Beckham lookalike that is Sarkozy. (As an aside has anyone else noticed the similarity between Sarkozy and Lumiere the candlestick in Beauty and the Beast?)

I take 'great comfort' that our economic future lies in the hands of such well qualified and talented leaders. As Isambard Kingdom Brunel once said:

"I endeavour to comprehend the present extraordinary state of railway matters when everyone around seems mad. Stark staring wildly mad. The only sane course for a sane man is to get out and keep quiet."

And I intend to do that, keep quiet, well for a couple of hours at least. Didier Reynders, the Belgian finance minister's left the EU gathering on Sunday early to see the new Tintin film and I'm about to do the same this morning - the film opens today at my local cinema. I'll stick a review up later, that is if, while I watch a Belgian save the world, the Euro doesn't collapse in the meantime.

The Morning After...

2011-10-25T11:00:00.005+01:00

I went on a jolly to London yesterday, to partake in a mass lobby of Parliament regarding the Referendum vote. Although, as I've previous mentioned I wasn't really interested in the debate itself - the vote was always a foregone conclusion - I thought it important to help contribute to the numbers outside. To try to show that this was an issue people do care about. It was also great to meet up with fellow bloggers Mark Wadsworth and Witterings from Witney, and to meet The Talking Clock and Katabasis.and later in the evening Helen from Your Freedom and Ours at the Bruges Group debate.

Personally I thought the turnout for the lobby was rather good although it wasn't quite as large as the one for the mass lobby on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, which is to be expected considering the short notice and that it was a Monday. However it still took over 2 hours to get in.

I didn't get to see my Tory MP, and to no surprise he voted against the motion. Interestingly during the Lisbon Treaty debate, he couldn't have been more helpful. He promptly answered my correspondence, he gave me his mobile number and when I was queuing he came out to meet me and enabled me to jump the queue to get in. Since I met him at the General Election count last year, standing as a UKIP candidate (in a neighbouring constituency), he has been less helpful. Letters and emails go unanswered and he didn't even meet me in the lobby yesterday - though my chances of meeting him were slightly better than Wittering from Witney's were on speaking to his MP.

But not all is in vain. There are some positive outcomes. By dividing his party so comprehensively Cameron will go down in history as another Tory leader who couldn't win an election. Cameron's greatest asset last year was Gordon Brown. The Tories benefited from the 'anyone but Gordon vote' (and still they couldn't win), in 2015, if the coalition lasts that long, that won't be a factor. A divided party, Europe, the economy, no Gordon Brown...say goodbye to any chances of winning in 2015 Cameron.

Also, the rebellion appears to be larger than expected, Cameron has 'lost' a large part of his party, which makes for interesting times when further votes on Europe are coming down the track. Senior Tory figures are denying that it is a humiliation which of course means that it is (*crunches popcorn*), and at least now even the most dim-witted amongst Tory members now have it in black and white that 'wait 'till Dave gets in' was an illusion all along.

One question got answered though. We're often told of the 'benefits' of EU membership in vague terms - good for Britain, national interest etc. If nothing else yesterday's vote answers that question unequivocally. That the three main parties in Parliament shows such contempt for the electorate, and that successive Tory leaders are prepared to destroy their own party first, tells us all we need to know on who actually benefits out of our membership of the EU.

Afraid

2011-10-23T17:15:00.001+01:00

Via The Talking Clock, I link to Peter Hitchens in the Daily Mail who highlights a rather sinister, though not surprising, development that Tory MPs who are opposed to the EU have to disguise their identity when talking to BBC radio 4:

Two Tory MPs are so scared of David Cameron’s pro-EU thought police that they have hidden their identities when giving radio interviews on the subject.

One said that wanting to leave the EU was ‘the love that dare not speak its name’. The other attacked Mr Cameron’s broken pledge for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Both knew that the Tory whips would destroy them if their names became known.

So their words were spoken by actors, as if they were dissidents in some foreign dictatorship.

The broadcast can be heard here.

The Penny Starts To Drop...

2011-10-23T16:24:00.001+01:00

From Iain "Just wait 'till Dave gets in" Dale's Diary 2009:

Frankly, those who start spitting about voting UKIP can bugger off and do just that if it makes them feel better. They may get a momentary warm glow of satisfaction, but what they could end up with is another five years of Gordon Brown.

Think on that, if you're one of those people. And then think about the word 'self-indulgent'.

Meanwhile, the rest of us will get on with trying to support a party leader who is trying his best to rescue the country from the Euro-mess created by the present lot.

Some people seem to have forgotten that it was Gordon Brown who reneged on his manifesto pledge for a referendum, not David Cameron. Cameron could never deliver on it if he wasn't in government. Brown was and didn't. That should tell you all you need to know.

If there's one positive aspect of tomorrow's pointless referendum 'debate' is that the notion of any kind of Euroscepticism from the Tories has been dynamited completed out of the water...and then some. As Autonomous Mind argues:

Before people can set about fixing something they have to understand exactly what is broken. At this time not enough people realise what is broken. This Parliamentary debate and the furore surrounding it will help more people on that journey of understanding. No matter what the outcome of the debate itself, the charade that brought it about will bring about some positive benefits.

So it's somewhat amusing, as a consequence, to see a change of tone from Dale:

Earlier today I tweeted...

"Can anyone identify a single EU power this government has repatriated so far? Taps fingers waiting..."

Nope I can't either, he continues:

Needless to say, a good few hours later I am still waiting. And that is partly why Conservative MPs are so annoyed by the government’s stance on the EU Referendum vote. If David Cameron had set out to ratchet up the heat in advance of this debate he couldn’t have done a better job. It is an object lesson in how not to handle his party.

The whole piece is worth reading in full, if only for the entertainment value, and he concludes (my emphasis):

And if he doesn’t deliver at that point? Well, many will have to ask themselves some very searching questions. And one will be, am I in the right party?

It's happening oh so slowly but if even the great Tory sage Dale is having doubts then Cameron and the Tory party is in a little bit of trouble.

And, it doesn't stop there; on the same 'mega' blog is this piece from Tory MP Adrian Hilton again worth reading in full, his conclusions are as follows (my emphasis):

But she is quite wrong to insist that she exercises her own judgement on these matters: she is a mere delegate of Brussels, and by refusing the British people a referendum on this fundamental constitutional issue, she helps to shield the EU government from the wrath of the electorate. In due course, civil society will learn to ignore the law and EU institutions, and will turn, instead, to civil disobedience; for other than capitulation, this is increasingly the EU citizen’s only option.

You've read that right, a Tory MP is warning of dire consequences of not listening to the people. They've been warned (again).

I'm Barking Mad

2011-10-22T20:03:00.004+01:00

Apparently according to some nondescript leader of the Labour Party:

"But the idea that we have more chance of getting our way and seeing our values spread by being outside the EU is barking, quite frankly."

I'm actually quite hurt...well, on reflection, maybe not.

FT Deutschland Is Priced In D-Marks

2011-10-21T15:13:00.002+01:00

As England Expects says wow:

Popcorn Time

2011-10-21T12:25:00.003+01:00

If nothing else, at least the Tory party provides a degree of entertainment. The continuing saga of the referendum vote on Monday has caused the Tories to go into one of their usual navel gazing EU meltdowns; 'shambolic', 'mismanagement', 'chaotic', have been some of the words used to describe Number 10's responses to a backbench rebellion.

It also represents a damning indictment of how low our Parliament has sunk, that it has no further use than as an entertainment circus as its powers have been outsourced abroad. The debate in Westminster over the EU has not moved on, it's the same old arguments, the same excuses and the same rhetoric - none of it has changed since the early '90s.

As such I've long given up that our exit from the EU will come from Westminster at all, as Richard North says it has written itself out of the script. I've always been rather proud that not once, since I was first eligible to vote - in the Newbury by-election 1993 - have I ever voted for any of the 3 main parties. They don't represent me, and installing a 3-line whip on a petition by the public just shows the contempt with which they hold us in.

So I take no real interest in the 'debate' on Monday; it will change nothing as MPs dust off 20 year old speeches. However Westminster may not have moved on but the world has, particularly through public opinion but crucially the Euro crisis. It won't be MPs or the Tories that affect our membership of the EU but the Germans. Next week is crucial for our future in Europe, but not because of events on Monday but because of events on Wednesday.

So in the meantime I will take great delight in the Tories imploding once again over Europe; as the ultimate proponents of "oh what a web we weave..." they fully deserve it.

Things Are Really Bad

2011-10-20T21:25:00.000+01:00

Contrary to my previous post, it seems, unexpectedly, that the EU is not even going to try to fudge Sunday's meeting - they instead have postponed any announcement until a second meeting next Wednesday. Blimey that means the crisis must be very serious!

Bruno Waterfield from the Telegraph tweets:

I feel for them I really do.

In Or Out - Lib Dem Style

2011-10-20T18:37:00.003+01:00

From England Expects:

From Norman Smith BBC News Channel chief political correspondent, today:

All three major parties now imposing three line whips on their MPs to vote against EU referendum motion on what's a "backbench debate"

Gaddafi

2011-10-20T15:52:00.005+01:00

Amid reports that Gaddafi has been killed this is the joint statement by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso*:

The reported death of Muammar Gaddafi marks the end of an era of despotism and repression from which the Libyan people have suffered for too long. Today Libya can turn a page in its history and embrace a new democratic future. We call on the National Transitional Council to pursue a broad based reconciliation process which reaches out to all Libyans and enables a democratic, peaceful and transparent transition in the country.

I also wonder what Tony Blair has to say?

*hattip: Ironies Too

A Disaster?

2011-10-20T12:52:00.002+01:00

I've noted before on this blog about the perils of an 'in or out' referendum. It won't be the foregone conclusion that some expect. Not least because all of the media, with the exception of the Daily Express, all support our continued membership. The discussion will be skewered accordingly.

Much melodramatic language will be used, such as the oft used line that it would be an 'economic disaster' for the UK if we left as most of our trade is with the EU.

The above picture, however, exposes the deception behind that argument. It's a picture of Douglas, the capital of the Isle of Man. Though the Isle of Man is a Crown Dependency, it is largely responsible for its own internal legislation and tax matters. Crucially it is not a member of the EU and it lies outside the European Economic Area as defined by the Lisbon Treaty (Article 355):

this Treaty shall apply to the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man only to the extent necessary to ensure the implementation of the arrangements for those islands set out in the Treaty concerning the accession of new Member States to the European Economic Community and to the European Atomic Energy Community signed on 22 January 1972.

In short, under the UK's accession treaty 1972, the Isle of Man can freely trade goods without non-EU tariffs, but it maintains its own control on virtually everything else.

So the obvious question is, how come a small island in the Irish sea with a population of around 76,500 can happily govern itself whilst successfully trading with the EU whilst not being a member but the UK cannot?