Friday, 8 May 2015

Two Years To An EU Referendum

It's been quite a while since I've enjoyed an election like I did last night. There were many highlights; the complete collapse of the unprincipled Lib Dems, Ed Davey losing his seat, Ed Balls losing his, the collapse of Labour in Scotland, that we will lose three party leaders in just one day, and that the pollsters got it completely wrong. For them it's a rerun of 1992. Against all predictions, bar the exception of a couple of bloggers, the Tories have won an outright majority.

The real significance is with a Tory majority Cameron will have to come good on his promise of an EU referendum in 2017. With a tiny majority which give his backbenchers a lot of power there can be no question of him reneging on this promise.

When I began this blog I never dreamed that the opportunity of actually leaving the EU would happen so soon. Thus among all the recriminations from various parties, including from UKIP who managed to lose a seat despite increasing its share of the vote, this for genuine eurosceptics is the real winner from the election results.

We have two years to prepare, the real hard work starts now.


  1. Erm, convince me Mr Frog. Two years is a long time in politics.

    1. I would imagine that Cameron would want referendum legislation on the statue book quickly to show that he can be "trusted", which is necessary if he is to blag his "reform" bollocks during the referendum campaign.

      We'll get a strong indication on 27th May with the Queen's speech. If it's in that then a bill will be laid down not long after that.

      Once the legislation is passed (probably later this year) then we will be getting a referendum regardless (barring force majeure obviously).

    2. Thankyou for illumination. I will await a referendum with vigour. I shouldn't really care as I no longer live in England. I consider myself an Englishman in exile. How sad is that?

  2. I live in hope but I've heard it all before and as Flaxen says, two years is a long time...

  3. IF he renegotiates, he will negotiate nothing of substance or of substantial meaning. Indeed Both Herr Merkel and Junker have told him and us this already. Why the electorate are suckered by him I will never know. Snake oil salesman if ever there was one.

    1. You're right there will be nothing of substance. The trick is to manage expectations for him so he can't pull 'a rabbit out of the hat' at the last minute. For that we need a unified "no" campaign.

  4. There will be no referendum.
    You've been had, if that's what you wanted.

    1. That link's out of date, since then Cameron said (on Andrew Marr) there will be one in 2017 regardless if he can 'renegotiate' or not.

      There will be a referendum in 2017, and presumably when it is included in the Queen's speech on 27th May, you'll come back and admit you were wrong?

  5. Beware: an in/out referendum will almost certainly result with an 'in' vote.

    What you (we) really need is a 6-way set of options:

    1. Stay in on the current terms (ongoing ever-closer union), and join the Euro
    2. Stay in on the current terms (ongoing ever-closer union); avoiding the Euro
    3. Stay in on the newly negotiated terms; avoid the Euro
    4. Withdraw to EEA-like status (most like Norway) with free movement of EU citizens and goods/services
    5. Withdraw to EFTA-like status (most like Switzerland) with free movement only of goods/services; no free movement of EU citizens.
    6. Totally withdraw from any EU-oriented trading arrangements.

    The vote should be conducted along Alternative Vote lines (ie every voter ranks the options).

    The decent reason for doing it this way is to say what you (we) want, rather than what you don't want (which is too negative an approach). Also, with AV, what you prefer - even if you cannot have exactly what you want.

    The other reason is to avoid being stitched up by a forced bad choice, which is just what Cameron and company want.

    Best regards

  6. 7th Option. In view of the almost certain likelihood of a referendum 'stitch up', then another route out of the EU should be ready in place. (Probably the only option left if the 'outs' win).

    That is for enough eurorealists across Parliament to initiate an amendment to the ECA 1972 enabling a UK parliament to moniter/filter all EU proposed directives etc with the added authority to reject some or all if not deemed to be in the national interest.
    At the same time our Supreme Court should be declared having status and authority above any other court - henceforward laws passed by our Parliament would be de facto and de jure superior to any EU law.