No Chance...

If you're going to do a hoax, at least make it plausible. Whatever one thinks of Blair he would know better than to 'campaign for an EU President'. No such position exists - it would be for the President of the European Council - currently held by Rompuy-Pumpy. (The EU has copious Presidents). Van Rompuy's Presidency actually ends in 2014.

That said looking at Blair's speech today, one should not be surprised that he is pitching for the vacant position in 2016. The position of President of the European Council is held for a once-renewable term of two and a half years, which means by 2016, if true that Blair wants to run he would be facing an EU approved incumbent. And that is not his only obstacle. He has others, which prevented him winning last time, namely:

• Making the European Council a formal EU body in the Lisbon Treaty (meant only as a temporary institution in 1974 - what in the EU is temporary invariably becomes permanent) was a mistake in EU terms. It created a power conflict between itself and the EU Commission (the executive). Thus it's in the EU Commision's interest to ensure that any candidate for European Council does not pose a threat. In the appointment of Baroness Ashton they got it right, in Rompuy-Pumpy less so (still-waters run deep). Like it or not Blair has presence on the international stage, so no way will they allow him to upstage the EU Commission as a consequence. No chance.
  
  
• Then there's the legacy of the Iraq war - deeply unpopular in Europe, cheese eating surrender monkeys anyone? The EU is largely a French project, so again no chance.
  
  
• Also, and very importantly in this instance, Blair is British. We're the awkward partner, the outsider, the one who is not in the Euro the one who are not 'good Europeans'. Given also that a referendum and frantic talk of 'a new relationship' is on its way - around 2016 - that the EU would want a Brit in charge of the European Council aint gonna happen? No chance.

I don't normally give betting advice on this blog, but if Blair ever throws his hat in for 2016, lay against him winning with everything you've got on Betfair. It's easy money - like taking candy away from a kid.

Quote Of The Day

From Douglas Carswell:

So. Three great election wins. More than a decade holding the levers of power. Now the memoirs published.

And what was it Tony Blair was all about?

New Labour seems to me shorthand for governing without principle. A feather for each wind that blows ....

Tilt this way, on one issue. Lean that way on another. Impressions crafted, rather than action taken, in response to events.

He could, of course, look closer to home for another recent example and I suspect that's precisely what he's doing via veiled criticism.

+++Breaking News+++

Some chap called Tony Blair (I think he used be a Prime Minister in the distant past) has written a book. And in this book he makes truly jaw-dropping claims about another chap called Gordon Brown (I think he used to be a Prime Minister as well):

Mr Blair says Mr Brown lacked political instinct "at the human gut level" adding: "Political calculation, yes. Political feelings, no. Analytical intelligence, absolutely. Emotional intelligence, zero."

All groundbreaking stuff. And:

"Was he difficult, at times maddening? Yes

It's news that's so sensational that it really does deserve its top billing across the media.

It's Nowt To Do With Cuts

The Sun is reporting this morning:

BRITAIN and France are preparing to reveal unprecedented plans to share the use of their aircraft carriers in a controversial step to maintain military power in an era of cost-cutting.

David Cameron and President Sarkozy are expected to outline the proposal in a November summit, which will lead to British and French flagships working together and protecting the interests of both countries.

Leaving aside the political implications such a move would have for the coalition, this story (if true) would merely be a continuation of what has been happening for years.

The EU has long sought a common defence strategy ever since Monnet's proposals in 1950 for the European Defence Community, and this desire for a 'European Army' has continued apace since the Maastricht treaty.

Agreements on Anglo-French naval co-operation were signed in 1996, the army 1997 and the air force in 1998. In 1996 Tory defence minister Michael Protilio agreed with his fellow defence ministers to set up the Western European Armaments Organisation under the Western European Union (a defence agreement now defunct due to Lisbon) to work for closer co-operation on EU defence procurement.

Tony Blair went even further in St Marlo in 1998 when he offered up the British Armed forces on a plate to be a key part of a New European Defence force, which would act outside of NATO:

Saint Malo was the site of an Anglo-French summit which lead to a significant agreement regarding European defence policy. British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac stated that "the [European] Union must have the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military forces, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises".

Geoff Hoon then signed a 'framework agreement' in 2000, which outlined the guidelines on how to harmonise the the military requirements and have a common command structure. All of this was leading to a common European Defence Agency which was established in 2004.

It was precisely because of this integration that the MoD disbanded or merged 19 historic regiments, so that new 8000 man brigades could be set up in order to fit in with ERRF requirements.

Even the two replacement carriers for the Navy already under construction, at a cost of £5.2billion, are being partially built by the French firm; Thales, who are building an identical one for the French navy. Again requirements of the ERRF.

As ever though none of this gets mention, and so cuts becomes a convenient cover for the Europhile Tories coalition.

He's Back

Tony has a new book out soon:



Apparently Blair will be 'frank' and 'unflinching' (no jokes please on how that will be a first).

What's struck me about this youtube performance is that Blair doesn't appear too dissimilar in his mannerisms (especially about 1min in) to this unintentionally hilarious effort by Brown.

hattip: Mr Eugenides

Masters And Servants

The Evening Standard has a quote from David Cameron:

"In everything we do...............we must remember that we are not masters but servants."

Hmm now that seems strangely familiar. Here's what Tony Blair had to say in 1997 just after the Labour landslide:

"We are not the masters. The people are the masters. We are the servants of the people. We will never forget that."

He was also overheard saying to Cameron recently:

"You have learned well my young Padawan..."

(Note: I might have made that last bit up).

hattip: Witterings From Witney

Blair? I Don't Care!

Apparently Tony Blair is appearing before the Chilcot Inquiry today. I only know this because the media have gone into collective orgasmic meltdown; it's dominating all the media outlets - the Daily Telegraph even have a live lie detector on their website. The mind boggles.

I really really really don't care about the lead up to the Iraq war. It was 7 years ago, this has been raked over many times before and Blair is the past. Nothing he says today is going to change anyone's opinion, least of all those that want him stuck in the Tower.

If the Chilcot inquiry asks some probing questions about Blair's role in Britain's subsequent disastrous and humiliating campaign in Iraq as depressingly detailed in Richard North's excellent book, then some use may come of it for lessons to be learnt in Afghanistan, otherwise it's just a waste of everyone's time and money.