Cameron, Article 48 And Donald Tusk

Little noticed or mentioned by the UK media but yesterday was the last day of the outgoing President of the European Council Herman van Rompuy. It's interesting that a quick Google news search shows mainly non-UK media outlets at the top of the list reporting the news. Clearly with no obvious "UK flag" to put on the story it gets tucked away unnoticed in the UK.

The lack of coverage provides a stark contrast to 5 years ago when van Rompuy was first chosen for the job. Then we had much salivation by the UK media over whether Tony Blair would be chosen for the job. A prospect that was always a non-starter.

So today we have a new President, and Van Rompuy's replacement is Poland's Donald Tusk:

Poland's Donald Tusk takes over as European Council president Monday, the first person from the former Soviet-dominated east to take a top Brussels role, with a mandate to revive the economy and deal with a resurgent Russia

Tusk will be a different proposition, with his roots in Poland's anti-communist Solidarity trade union, at a time when the European Union faces a mounting challenge from Russia over Ukraine.

However why this matters to the UK, and more specifically to Cameron, is Tusk is Polish and he has previous with Cameron over immigration:

The Polish prime minister has lashed out at David Cameron’s calls to scrap the overseas payments of child benefit for the children of UK-based immigrants, calling them “unwarranted and unacceptable”.

Speaking at a press conference, Donald Tusk, the leader of Poland’s centre-right government, vented Polish anger over the Prime Minister’s proposals made in a speech on Sunday that singled out Poles, and promised Poland would veto the changes to EU treaties the proposed adjustments to child benefit laws would require.

As we noted in our previous piece for Cameron to achieve treaty changes via Article 48 he has to have the approval of the other 27 member states at a European Council and here we can expect likely objections to Cameron's proposal to limit immigration to come from countries such as Poland.

But first Cameron's proposals have to be put on the European Council agenda for it to be put to the vote. And the agenda is set by the President. And the President is now Polish.

Cameron's attempt at using Article 48 to remove himself from a hook has just become far more difficult.

Honest Intentions?

For many reasons the President of the European Council, Mr Van Rompuy, is worth mocking not least due to his lack of democratic mandate, which has led to this slightly amusing twitter exchange following Van Rompuy's original tweet.

But if one is to mock him it's probably best to have a fair idea of his official position within the EU. It would demonstrate an understanding of our supreme government if nothing else which is surely 'bread and butter' territory for supposedly "one of Britain's leading political blogsites".

Yet blogger Guido Fawkes – as screen printed above (I generally don’t link to him for reasons outlined here) - describes him as “the EU President”. It seems Fawkes can't even be bothered to make a simple Google search. A pernickety point perhaps but an essential element to fighting an enemy is know what you're up against. As the "Art of War" notes:

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.

If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.

If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.

And it is not for the first time that Fawkes has been less than forthcoming about the EU. He began a referendum campaign to try to re-introduce capital punishment, whilst not acknowledging the fact that to reintroduce hanging would be in breach of our EU membership, even though it was pointed out to him at the time.

These details become important when we consider that Fawkes is taken seriously by the legacy media, such as the Spectator, the Guardian and the Telegraph. Should we have an 'in or out' referendum on EU membership, Fawkes' opinion will be sought even though he clearly demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge about the subject. A true member of the Westminster Village indeed.

As Richard North notes we are dealing with children. Although the crucial difference is that children often blurt out brutal honesty in all innocence - sometimes loudly- much to their parents' embarrassment.

Fawkes describes his blog as "written from the perspective of the only man to enter Parliament with honest intentions". That maybe true of the original Guido Fawkes but his 21st century namesake is as dishonest as they come.

Quote Of The Day

From the Telegraph Editorial (my emphasis):

Already the bombardment has started: Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the Council of Europe, this week insisted that Britain must be either completely in, or completely out.

Erm... wrong Council, Van Rompuy is President of the European Council. The Council of Europe is not even an EU institution.

No Chance...

If you're going to do a hoax, at least make it plausible. Whatever one thinks of Blair he would know better than to 'campaign for an EU President'. No such position exists - it would be for the President of the European Council - currently held by Rompuy-Pumpy. (The EU has copious Presidents). Van Rompuy's Presidency actually ends in 2014.

That said looking at Blair's speech today, one should not be surprised that he is pitching for the vacant position in 2016. The position of President of the European Council is held for a once-renewable term of two and a half years, which means by 2016, if true that Blair wants to run he would be facing an EU approved incumbent. And that is not his only obstacle. He has others, which prevented him winning last time, namely:

• Making the European Council a formal EU body in the Lisbon Treaty (meant only as a temporary institution in 1974 - what in the EU is temporary invariably becomes permanent) was a mistake in EU terms. It created a power conflict between itself and the EU Commission (the executive). Thus it's in the EU Commision's interest to ensure that any candidate for European Council does not pose a threat. In the appointment of Baroness Ashton they got it right, in Rompuy-Pumpy less so (still-waters run deep). Like it or not Blair has presence on the international stage, so no way will they allow him to upstage the EU Commission as a consequence. No chance.
  
  
• Then there's the legacy of the Iraq war - deeply unpopular in Europe, cheese eating surrender monkeys anyone? The EU is largely a French project, so again no chance.
  
  
• Also, and very importantly in this instance, Blair is British. We're the awkward partner, the outsider, the one who is not in the Euro the one who are not 'good Europeans'. Given also that a referendum and frantic talk of 'a new relationship' is on its way - around 2016 - that the EU would want a Brit in charge of the European Council aint gonna happen? No chance.

I don't normally give betting advice on this blog, but if Blair ever throws his hat in for 2016, lay against him winning with everything you've got on Betfair. It's easy money - like taking candy away from a kid.

Lies, Damn Lies And More Lies

One almost marvels at the lurid headlines:

Battling [Tory} rebels baying for Britain to leave the European Union, David Cameron faces the near impossible task this week of finding an EU budget deal acceptable to mutinous party members and to exasperated fellow EU leaders.

'The near impossible' bit gives leeway that Cameron can try to plead for a small concession from the EU (which will mean anything but) which will happen in the form of a sympathetic bone chucked at him to keep him happy, and then he'll dress it up as the greatest achievement known to mankind akin to the moon landings.

Last time he had this to say to bored tired newspaper hacks in the early hours of the morning (my emphasis):

PM David Cameron has effectively vetoed an EU-wide treaty change to tackle the eurozone crisis, saying it was not in the UK's interests.

Naturally this translated into 'vetoed'. "Effectively vetoed" means nothing of the sort. If I run a mile a day for 26 days and then say "I've effectively run a marathon" it means in reality I've done no such thing.

We also have to put up with the usual nonsense this week that this is an 'EU summit':

The prime minister's threat to veto the union's long-term budget at a Brussels summit starting on Thursday appealed to the anti-EU wing of his Conservative Party, emboldened after defeating him in a parliamentary vote calling for European spending cuts.

It's not a summit it's a European Council meeting which means any talk of a veto is complete and utter nonsense on stilts. No veto can be applied. Still that so called position will occupy the airwaves.

This lying to us doesn't only apply to just the news, take this from BBC Sport earlier this year as an example...

Swindon Town defender Aden Flint is set to miss the rest of the season with a groin problem.

The 22-year-old has been sidelined for the last two games and will see a specialist on Friday to determine whether he needs surgery.

Groin injury? See that's not actually true. A more accurate description would be he got inebriated in a nightclub, gave the classic 'do you not know who I am?' reaction and was met with a more than rigorous response which left him unavailable to play for weeks. Yet the BBC and other media outlets still listed it as a 'groin' strain'.

We're being lied to.

Please Sir Can I Have Some More?

That we don't really run our own country as members of the EU is hardly a secret, nor particularly a conspiracy but a fact that is hidden out in the open - with bells and whistles on. Instead the subject of the EU is treated by the MSM and MPs rather like Voldemort from Harry Potter - he who cannot be named - it's better to avoid the subject because it's a little too inconvenient to tackle the truth and fight the problem.

Nothing illustrates this better today than Cameron in the Telegraph, first he was ignored:

And then he was 'heard':

Ah bless, poor Dave whinges that the EU ignored him and they had to reassure him that no they really did listen to him - and then told him to go do one (as the Treaty he supposedly 'vetoed' was signed anyway)

And so in a single day the whole concept of 'UK influence in the EU' and 'in Europe not been ruled by it' is comprehensively torpedoed below the waterline - the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland reduced to begging on his knees - please sir can I have some powers back? Yet still the MSM nor the Tories will see it - the impotency of our own country there in plain sight.

But, apparently we have more important matters to attend to like whether Cameron rode a horse or not. I note the horse in question has died and (probably) been sent off to a glue factory. I would suggest the same fate should befall Cameron, but given his history on promises the subsequent adhesive qualities probably won't come up to standard.

Clarkson Favourite For Next EU President

My fun online poll from last week has now closed, and by an overwhelming margin Jeremy Clarkson is favourite amongst my readers to be the next President of the European Council. Many thanks to all those that have taken part, here's the results in full:

Ryan Giggs	3 (4%)
Hugh Bonneville	2 (2%)
David Threlfall	2 (2%)
Jeremy Clarkson	66 (90%)

The Next President Of The EU?

As we know the democratic legitimacy of the current President of the European Council has often been called into question, however Lib Dem MEP Andrew Duff has put forward proposals that mark the 'first step towards a directly elected EU President'. In the spirit of that, and for some fun for the bank holiday weekend, I thought I would conduct a poll from the following possible Presidential candidates on who's most suitable to take the EU forward (when Rompuy's time is up) into an age of openness and democracy:

• Ryan Giggs: Known as the 'Welsh Wizard', Giggs is blessed with a rare footballing talent. A football veteran, one of the greatest Premiership players ever and a legend not only with Manchester United fans but with football fans in general. A player who has devoted his life to the game rather than the lifestyle he could get from it - a happily married man. Giggs has all the abilities of hard work and devotion to make the changes needed to give the EU a more respectable image.
  
  
• Hugh Bonneville: A fine English actor, who is currently starring in the exceptional and popular ITV drama Downtown Abbey. Hugh plays the wealthy Robert, Earl of Grantham who not only is devoted to preserving the status quo in early 20th Century Britain but is a devoted family man. A proper English gent who would fit right in with the EU elite but will do what's best for Britain.
  
  
• David Threlfall: An English actor who plays drunk 'Shakespeare quoting' intellectual Frank Gallagher in Channel Four's Shameless. Great for winding up those unelected EU officials.
  
  
• Jeremy Clarkson: The thinking man's loudmouth. Opinionated, right wing and anti-EU. Clarkson will do to the Berlaymont what he does to caravans - my perfect candidate.
  

Please vote in the right hand column.

The Nation State Is Over

That is the view of this unelected President*

We have together to fight the danger of a new Euro-scepticism. This is no longer the monopoly of a few countries. In every Member State, there are people who believe their country can survive alone in the globalised world. It is more than an illusion: it is a lie! The time of the homogeneous nation-state is over.

How dare all those people believe in their country. I mean really? Van Rompuy knows best! Personally I suspect that Mr Unelected will find out sooner or later that the views of those 'who believe' will be far more superior in numbers than him, and he will need that protection that he relies on.

IanPJ on Politics has a great post on Van Rompuy's views.

*Note: Van Rompuy is not only the President of the European Council but has also recently become de facto President of the Council of the European Union.

Wellie Wanging

In a tribute to the great British fete tradition of the wellie throwing competition, European dairy farmers have arranged their own version outside the EU Council building (I presume they mean the Justus Lipsius building), according to the Telegraph:

"Several hundred boot-throwing dairy farmers, some in tractors, protested outside the European Union headquarters against planned milk sector reforms"

Personally I think one of these would be far more effective, and if the dairy farmers require assistance on making one, Gerry Adams can be contacted here.

Slowly But Surely

Yesterday the new EU President met with Gordon Brown to discuss the economy, climate change and the crisis in Haiti. It gave van Rompuy the chance to reiterate his idea of direct taxation by the EU in the form of a bonus tax, following on from Luc Frieden, Luxembourg's finance minister, at the weekend who also mooted a similar idea, and using Haiti as an opportunity to suggest an EU 'humanitarian rapid reaction force'.

Aside from the slightly amusing title (I presume by rapid reaction they mean that they will decide to do nothing even quicker), it's another sign that van Romuy's desire for more EU integration is coming along rather nicely. Fraser Nelson at the Spectator sums up the meaning of Rompuy's suggestion well:

This rung a bell with me. When I did my tour of duty in the Scottish Parliament, this was a goal of the SNP. They want to creep on to the world stage, without asking permission. One step is to send “observers” to various committees. But aid is the softest target. The SNP have long wanted to use this as a way to project Scotland as an international actor (just as Rompuy wants the EU to be recognised as having a force in its own right). So when an earthquake strikes, Scottish aid with Scottish money leaves a Scottish airport on behalf of the Scottish people. Politically, it’s a great tactic – because it seems heartless to object to such a mission. It should, of course, be quashed as needless duplication. The SNP want to duplicate what DFID does – this sneaking one step closer to nationhood.

Rompuy has cottoned on to the same scam, as he made clear in his press conference with Brown today (transcript here). It’s all part of the slowly-slowly method of preventing voters with a fait accompli: to create a fake Scottish or EU government and the following it up with tax-raising powers. Aid, defence and foreign policy should not be an EU competence: different countries have different priorities. But aid is the softest target for the EU – and Rompuy clearly has his eye on it.

Fraser's absolutely spot on.