Same Sex Marriage And Europe

Back in December of last year, I noted that while the issue of same-sex marriage didn't register very highly in terms of my interest it had an amusing side-effect of watching the Tories destroy their own party. (I'm using the term same-sex because "gay marriage" apparently offends the sensibilities of some in the LGBT community - I kid you not, Newswatch 7:15 mins in).

Aside from the serious question of democracy (Cameron has no mandate for this) I was always puzzled why the Tories seemed so determined to destroy themselves and their chances at the next election - a view echoed by Richard North in a post a couple of days later. Normally suspicions are aroused in these circumstances that there must be an element of the EU about it. However at the time I drew a blank. But as it now turns out I was looking in the wrong place.

This week in a series of highly informative posts, Richard North has nailed the European angle - its genesis lies with the Council of Europe rather than the EU - culminating in this piece by Christopher Booker in today's Sunday Times, which concludes (my emphasis):

A speech by the British judge, Sir Nicolas Bratza, then head of the European Court of Human Rights, signalled that the court was ready to declare same-sex marriage a “human right”, as soon as enough countries fell into line.

Such are the real reasons that our Government needed to rush through last week’s vote on gay marriage. We are committed to “full implementation” of the Council of Europe’s policy no later than this June (and hence the similar law now being rushed through in France). It has been a brilliant political coup by the gay lobby, aided by Featherstone, May and those shadowy European bodies that, in so many ways, now rule our lives. But why weren’t we told more honestly and openly why it has all happened?

Why indeed? And thus in one sentence sums up our relationship with all institutions European.

Sadly it comes as no surprise that the agendas of a minority of a minority can simply trample over democracy without so much as a by your leave, illustrated no better than the former 'equalities' minister Lynne Featherstone demanding that writers and editors of newspapers should be sacked for publishing an opinion.

With dreary expectation we can expect soon a challenge to the ECHR that churches will be forced against their will to marry same-sex couples.

The Hidden Trap

David Cameron's speech this morning, which I described earlier in robust terms, seems to have done its intended trick and united his party albeit temporarily (the divisive gay marriage vote is yet to come). So it's no surprise to read Daniel Hannan singing his master's praises, despite him knowing that the renegotiation option is not possible.

On the domestic political front, Cameron's speech is a superficially clever old wheeze. Cameron gets to outflank the Labour party who now seem embroiled with confusion over their EU policy (perhaps less time faffing about with the Nash Equilibrium and more time developing principles might help), while leaving UKIP with a conundrum I'm not confident that they will resolve adequately. Time will tell I guess.

The potential trouble for Cameron though comes down to detail - can he maintain, for five years, the assertion of repatriating powers despite it not being possible? We've had form from Mr Cameron on this before with the 'fake veto'. Initially it gave him a poll boost, yet when reality hit home, less than two months later, the picture was somewhat different. In that context five years is a very long time to keep up successfully a lie, and as Richard North writes a massive lie is exactly what Cameron's speech was.

Yet despite the so-called clear water, a description beloved of the media, between Labour and the Tories on the EU issue, this is immaterial. The Tories are very unlikely to win the next election, for various reasons, but a referendum on the EU, or lack of one, will not be one of them.

Nor indeed does the next election necessarily rest on the performance of the economy. Despite the political cliche of "It's the economy, stupid", elections in this country in the last 20 years, since the phrase was coined, don't bear that out. John Major won in 1992 in the midst of a recession, yet lost heavily when the economy was picking up in 1997 (When told by Treasury officials in 1997, the economy handed over by the Tories was better than expected, Gordon Brown's response was; "Do you want me to write a thank-you letter"?). Yet ten years later Brown's popularity sunk, not because of the credit crunch that was to come, but because of the election never was. Brown's dithering displayed a lack of leadership - the killer weakness is incompetence, or the impression of it. Here the coalition has displayed it in spades, epitomised by Osborne's disastrous budget of last year

But despite that by far the biggest threat to a Tory majority government is none of the above nor indeed UKIP but the electoral system. The electoral bias is significant according to the UKPolling Report (my emphasis):

It is far easier for Labour to secure a majority in the House of Commons than it is for the Conservatives. If Labour lead in the vote they will secure an overall majority, if the parties are neck and neck then Labour will be by far the largest party. In contrast, depending on how well the Liberal Democrats do, the Conservatives need to be in the region of 9 or 10 percent ahead in the polls to secure an overall majorty.

Currently the Tories are 5 points behind. So without implementing a boundary review, the Tories are at a huge disadvantage, and it looks as if the latest boundary review has been knocked on the head for this Parliament. Then there is postal voting, a system of electoral fraud that benefits Labour more than the Tories. Without resolving these issues, the Tories are more than likely to be dead and buried at the next election. Thus I'm not convinced a referendum on the EU will be enough to save them.

Therefore Labour don't actually have to promise one to win and, unless they reverse their own policy, we won't be getting a referendum. One wonders if this is why Cameron has promised one in the full knowledge he won't ever be called on to deliver?

And even in the miraculous event he does win the next election, his reluctance to make explicit what he would do in the face of the inevitable failure of renegotiation is very apparent as highlighted by Norman Tebbit in the Telegragh:

He was quite clear that if his negotiations not just to repatriate powers, but to reform the very structure of the EU and bring into question the concept of "ever closer union" were successful, he would campaign for a Yes vote. He was rather less clear about whether if they failed, he would then campaign for a "No" vote. Indeed he repeatedly dodged that question.

In other words; "we won't let matters rest there"? We've been here before.

And there lies the hidden trap. By promising an EU referendum we're either faced with voting for a liar who won't deliver or, with the odds heavily stacked against Cameron winning the election, the Tories inevitably losing the next election thus prompting the accusations yet again that EU promises don't win elections. In such circumstances one can see the issue being 'parked' for another generation.

Perhaps that's the point all along?

Death Wish

The actual debate over gay marriage registers on my 'interest-o meter' at around the level of Manolo Blahnik shoes, and the continuing adventures of Kim Kardashian - basically not very high.

It does, however, have the amusing side-effect of watching the Tories pull themselves apart. Not content with destroying their party over the issue of Europe, they seemed determined to put another nail in their electoral coffin by splitting their party again over an issue, that seems to barely register across the country - not surprising given the economic climate, while ensuring that many more Tory members and helpers will leave in their droves. The Tories appear to have a death wish.

There is however a far more important point and it is one of democracy. The issue, which has serious implications for the relationship between the church and state needs serious debate, instead it has been reduced to cynical Tory political calculation for the next election. The voters have seen it for the cynicism that it is:

A ComRes survey published today found that 62 per cent of voters and 68 per cent of Tories believe marriage should continue to be defined as a ‘life-long exclusive commitment between a man and a woman’.

In a further blow for the PM, 65 per cent agree that his plans to legalise gay marriage are ‘more to do with trying to make the Conservative Party look trendy and modern’ than a matter of conviction.

It's also worth noting that the so-called heavyweights supporting Cameron, John Major and Boris Johnson are not elected as MPs. Nor will it stop there, as Peter Bone MP says in the Independent (pictured above):

"If this were a genuine free vote, which of course it isn't, I reckon most Conservative MPs would vote against." He added: "The Prime Minister is absolutely wrong on this. This 'cast-iron guarantee' he has given that no church will be forced to marry someone is obviously false, because the European courts will intervene.

"What will happen when a couple goes to a local church, same sex, saying they want to be married [and] that church turns them down? Off to a European court and, heigh-ho, all churches will be forced to.

But the money quote is this one from Mr Bone:

"It was in no party manifesto, there is no mandate for the Prime Minister to do this; he is absolutely wrong to be doing it now..."

And in one sentence Mr Bone (unwittingly I suggest) has summed up everything that is wrong. The voters' appear to be against it, Cameron has no mandate, yet he will still force this issue through Parliament against the wishes of the majority of the population opposed, topped off eventually with an intervention from European Courts which will expand the consequences of the law. Yet another example of how democracy has gone seriously AWOL in this country.

The antidote to all this is the 6 demands of the Harrogate Agenda. Parliament in its current form is not fit for purpose.