Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Poll Blow For EU Exit

Ahead of tonight's debate between Farage and Clegg on EU membership broadcast on LBC (7pm) and also shown on Sky News Political Betting has the latest poll from YouGov on EU exit.

We can see quite clearly that those who wish to remain in the EU is 6 points ahead. Factor in the "don't knows" with the status quo effect and the out campaign is in deep trouble. The problem is that those in favour of the EU membership do not have to win the argument, all they have to do is sow enough doubt to keep the status quo. We face an uphill battle.

That's why Richard North's submission was so essential - to nullify that status quo threat. Failing to neutralise the economic argument will mean we lose. Thus tonight Farage has to show he appreciates this massive threat to exit and step up to the plate big time.

Failure to do so and we've all lost...

7 comments:

  1. I am registered to participate in yougov polls . I have not been asked to do the above in or out vote . They know I am a UKIPer .
    Funny business ? I think so .

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    1. Me too. Strange that, yougov just another version of the bbc.

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    2. The key point about polls is the long term trend. When papers ramp up the FUD there is a marked shift towards staying in.

      An example of long term trends is this

      http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2435&view=wide

      What is clear - with the inbuilt 20% advantage the status quo has - the out side has nothing like the lead necessary to win.

      To win YouGov should be showing a 26 point lead for the outers at least or more. I guess you're not going to suggest YouGov manipulates its poll ratings to this extent?

      As 1975 clearly showed us when push comes to shove the status quo usually wins...

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  2. Isn't YouGov's president married to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for the European Union?

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    Replies
    1. Absolutely right -- they certainly should not be trusted on this sort of poll

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  3. Same with me!! The poll excluded me.

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  4. SuperPayMe is the biggest work from home site.

    ReplyDelete