Poll Blow For EU Exit

Ahead of tonight's debate between Farage and Clegg on EU membership broadcast on LBC (7pm) and also shown on Sky News Political Betting has the latest poll from YouGov on EU exit.

We can see quite clearly that those who wish to remain in the EU is 6 points ahead. Factor in the "don't knows" with the status quo effect and the out campaign is in deep trouble. The problem is that those in favour of the EU membership do not have to win the argument, all they have to do is sow enough doubt to keep the status quo. We face an uphill battle.

That's why Richard North's submission was so essential - to nullify that status quo threat. Failing to neutralise the economic argument will mean we lose. Thus tonight Farage has to show he appreciates this massive threat to exit and step up to the plate big time.

Failure to do so and we've all lost...

EU's New Treaty - A Great Leap Forward

Christopher Booker writes in his Sunday Telegraph column today:

As our “Little England” politicians continue to squabble over David Cameron’s pie-in-the-sky talk about holding a referendum in 2017 on a new treaty relationship with the EU, the real puzzle is why no one in Britain is talking about the rapidly advancing plans of the EU establishment for another much more important treaty of their own, designed to take the EU a huge step further forward to becoming a fully fledged “Government of Europe”.

And to make the point for him, today we have in the same paper, Chirs Grayling arguing that "Britain needs a completely new relationship with the EU", Tory MPs demanding a veto on EU laws, then Iain Duncan Smith in the Times saying "he wants to change EU law over benefits and migrants, and the Guardian reporting that "President of European parliament says UK has 'no chance of curbing basic principle of free movement'".

No doubt this kind of nonsense about "repatriating powers" will intensify until May in anticipation of UKIP's predicted success in the Euro-elections at the cost of Tory votes.

Yet the real story of the 2014 elections won't be UKIP but instead it will be used as justification for a major treaty which has designs for the next great leap forward in EU integration. EU Commission President Barrosso has called for an EU-wide debate on proposals to deepen Economic and Monetary Union, and to create a legitimate political union. Conveniently 2014 is also the 100 year anniversary of the First World War which the EU will undoubtedly use as justification:

Barroso says next year will be the 100-year anniversary of the First World War, which affected Belgium greatly. The war, however, began in the Balkans – and Barroso believes this underlines the fact you cannot turn inwards and ignore the world around you.

And as with all things EU its desire for further integration is no big secret. The 300 page draft of the new treaty can be found here. Angela Merkel's first speech to Germany’s parliament when she was re-elected made clear the need for a new Treaty:

In the first speech of her third term, German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged European partners to tackle flaws in their currency union by ceding control over economic policy and making politically sensitive changes to the bloc's treaty.

"I know that pushing through treaty changes in the member states can be difficult, but if you want more Europe, you have to be prepared to develop it further. In a world that is constantly changing, we can't stand there and say that at some point we agreed the Lisbon Treaty and there's no need to change it again. This won't work."

With the release in October of the draft we are given a very clear picture of what this treaty might look like. A 300-page draft of the treaty by the Spinelli Group entitled “A Fundamental Law of the European Union” sets out in detail just how the EU can take another huge step towards political integration.

Interestingly at its core it revives former EU Commission’s President Jacques Delors's vision in 1990, when he proposed that the Commission should become the “executive”, the Council of Ministers the “Senate” and the Parliament, given new powers, elected by the people. A plan that was dismissed by Margaret Thatcher's famous “no, no, no” speech which triggered her downfall:



Within the draft are also proposals for much closer integration of foreign, defence and energy policies, more control by Brussels over national finances and budgets, particularly in the eurozone, more power to impose measures “to combat climate change”.

In short, this new treaty –  backed behind the scenes by Delors himself - is designed to complete the task which so humiliatingly fell short when that earlier planned EU “Constitution” was rejected by the voters of France and Holland in 2005, only to be smuggled in again three years later as the Treaty of Lisbon.

The draft even wants to reinstate the European anthem and the EU flag (page 19):

The Fundamental Law brings back the symbols of the Union (the flag and the anthem) which were jettisoned from the Treaty of Lisbon

So while our "Little Englander" media and politicians squabble about reforming little bits of the EU, the EU itself is concerned with getting on with major reforms that have complete different objectives and outcomes. Mr Cameron’s bluff on negotiating a “new settlement” for Britain is about to be called out.

Aside from the fact that a fundamental principle of the EU is powers once given up are never returned, even if they could be, as Richard North consistently notes, Cameron hasn’t got the faintest chance of meeting his 2017 deadline for a referendum anyway:

...if there are changes to the treaty, we have to go through four stages.

First, we have to secure a simple majority. That means that we need to find 14 member state governments who agree with us. We have not started that task and it looks as though we are not going to start it until after the election. Secondly, we have to get a consensus in the necessary convention. The last convention took 18 months. The third stage is that we have to get unanimity in the intergovernmental conference - Maastricht took a year - and the final stage is ratification.

Actually, the last (and only) convention process started with the Laeken declaration in December 2001 and effectively ended the start of the IGC in October 2003 – just two months short of the two years. The IGC then finished in June 2004 – the door-to-door treaty process taking two-and a half years.

Transpose that onto the current situation and assume that David Cameron gets re-elected in May 2015, that brings us to November 2017 on the same timescale. But then there has to be a referendum campaign, bringing us well into 2018.

The EU instead will be entirely focussed on their own, more important treaty, while Cameron dances about on the touchline waving his arms frantically trying to gain attention. Ignoring him the EU will get on playing their much more important game. The UK will be sidelined whether we like it or not.

And this process of sidelining the UK will be given official status under the new Treaty in the form of a new construct “Associate Membership” (page 284 - Protocol No 9 Associate Membership of the Union). Clearly this is offered as a solution for countries which cannot go along with the further drive to create “a country called Europe”, but which still want full trading access to their Single Market; countries like (obviously) the UK but also Ireland and Denmark and also for non-members Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and possibly even Turkey.

What is interesting is such flexibility in the past has always been resisted on the basis that it creates a dangerous precedent where other member states start asking for a change in terms and conditions such that the entire project comes crashing down. Thus the EU must now be very confident that it is now not possible for most member states to take the 'Associate’ option.

However the trade-off with the 'Associate’ option means limited participation with EU institutions and the deal itself can also be limited in duration, for example under Protocol No 9:

Article 1

The agreement will set out the terms, conditions, scope and limits of associate membership and the adjustments to the law of the Union which such association entails. The agreement may be of limited duration.

Article 3.1

The agreement shall specify in which of the Union’s policies and functions the Associate State is to participate, and the terms and conditions, financial and institutional, which shall apply to that participation.

Article 6

An associate membership agreement may be suspended, in whole or in part, in accordance with the procedures laid down in Article 133. 

EU membership with limited participation - a new twist on their favourite phrase "government by fax". Thus what it offers Cameron, and indeed Clegg and Miliband is poisonous; a chance to remain part of the EU – which they say they never wish to leave – but only on its outer ring. We would in effect just be a second-class member.

Cameron, and the rest of our political class who are equally adamant that they could not allow Britain to leave the EU, would be reduced to campaigning in a referendum arguing that Britain should become just a second-class member of the EU, excluded from its central counsels. They will be horribly caught out.

Such a confrontation was always inevitable, the UK's 'sort of in, sort of out' position - topped off with lies and deception - was always incompatible with EU membership when it continued to do what it does best - politically integrate. For many decades the UK establishment has embraced the idea of European economic and political co-operation, but has never been able to persuade the UK people about the idea of political integration.

Instead of indulging in empty political gestures and wishful thinking, we are going to be brought sharply down to earth - to decide whether we really wish to become second-class citizens of the EU, or to find a wholly different way forward.

Whether Cameron likes it or not the EU is going to take the next big leap foward in integration with a new Treaty and leave us behind, effectively placing us firmly in the lounge marked "departure." Perhaps we might then have a proper grown-up discussion over the best way forward.

A Stain On Society

Perhaps Cameron thinks this kind of language is clever or helps him connect with us ordinary people - in that patronising tone he likes so much, but in truth it's pathetic, unstatesman-like and fake (my emphasis):

"To me the [coalition] is not a marriage," Cameron said at the launch of their midterm review, which is designed to rejuvenate the government after battles over House of Lords reform and climate change. "It is a Ronseal deal. It does what it says on the tin. We said we would come together, we said we would form a government, we said we would tackle these big problems. That is exactly what we have done."

Doing what it says on the tin is the last attribute that can be applied to this coalition, given cast iron promises, student tuition fees and just bog standard plain lies. Perhaps they think we're all so stupid to notice?

But at least Clegg is not debasing politics further by hosting a radio show in an attempt to "learn what the people really think". You would assume that as a member of the government, and as an MP he should already be aware of that - but apparently not. If not he could at least use the tried and tested "Google is your friend" technique, and take comfort in the fact that it's the only friend he's got.

Meanwhile the rest of us are actually trying to take politics seriously and make this country better.

Voting

I've just visited my local polling station and for the first time ever I've voted for myself (for District Council)- a slightly surreal experience.

Regarding the AV referendum, I was in two minds right up until the last minute of whether to refuse the ballot paper or spoil it with an EU referendum message. I decided on the former - mainly because any messages on spoiled papers will get ignored; a lower turnout sends a better message. The chap at the polling station got a little irritated by my request, he tried to insist that I had to take it (no I don't).

Anyway the upshot is that I haven't partaken in the referendum.

Update: If I had chosen to spoil my ballot paper as indicated above, I was going to take a picture and post it on here. However I find, courtesy of Douglas Carswell, that such actions would have been illegal:

NB. Out of interest, I checked with the Electoral Commission before posting a photo of my ballot paper on line. Apparently, it is legal to do so if you vote by post. But not if you vote in a polling booth. It's unlawful to publish information about what happens in a polling booth.

I Forgot I'm Running The Country

The Middle East is in chaos, UK citizens are being neglected, yet the Deputy PM 'forgets' he is in charge. From the Daily Mail:

When asked who was in charge, Mr Clegg, who is on a skiing holiday in Switzerland, said: 'Yeah, I suppose I am. I forgot about that. I'm holding the fort but I'm hoping to take the end of the week off with my kids. Someone else will have to do it then. It sounds more haphazard than it probably is.'

Truly I'm speechless, I really don't know what else to say.

UK Television Election Debates To Go Ahead

It's been confirmed that the UK will have its first ever televised leader election debates after a deal has been struck between the three main party leaders.

I can't pretend I'm happy, I think this development is an anathema to British democracy.

It creates a presidential-like atmosphere in British politics where no president is ever elected.

A popular but inaccurate criticism of Gordon Brown is that he is 'unelected'. It's true that he has no popular mandate via a general election, but no Prime Minister is ever elected directly by the voters. He achieves that position by winning a parliamentary seat, being part of a majority party and then elected by his party as Prime Minister - all of which Brown has done.

The voters do not directly elect Prime Ministers, as they didn't with; Churchill, Eden, Macmillan, Douglas Home, Callaghan or Major.

Having leaders' debates is a direct challenge to this, as it reinforces the leaders as the priority and and undermines the principle of voting for a local representative.

Why is Nick Clegg being given equal billing? Labour is the Government, the Tory's are the main opposition, but the Lib Dems are far behind with only 63 seats. Not fair. Especially considering their poor record in the local elections this year and that they came only forth in the Euro elections in June.

As Nick Robinson from the BBC puts it:

Nick Clegg will scarcely be able to believe his luck as the first leader of the third party to share top billing with his big two rivals.

Exactly, and what about the other parties fighting the next election, particularly the SNP who are the major party in Scotland, and currently running Holyrood albeit with a minority administration? Surely a legal challenge must be forthcoming?

And then there's the other parties, such as the DUP, Plaid Cymru or even UKIP who are the main fourth party in the UK and came second in the recent Euro elections?

This process discriminates unfairly against those smaller parties fighting for seats at the next election and entrenches further the main parties in parliament, by virtue of vastly more exposure.

All three of them share the same views on many issues such as; the EU, MPs' expenses and climate change - consensus is never good news - therefore the leaders' debates, in my view, are going to achieve the opposite of their intention; diminish democracy even more in this country.

Prime Minister's Questions

Although I'm an avid watcher of PMQs, it is not my intention to regularly blog about it or give a 'scores on the doors'. Other blogs are much better at it than me.

PMQs is generally a bit of knock-about fun which, depending on how it's reported, is only useful to gauge the political weather: today Brown looked confident, Cameron less so, - partly I would guess, because the Tories have recently declined in the polls since 'cast-iron' Dave's about-turn on the Lisbon Treaty.

My reason for blogging about PMQs today though, is that there is one small detail that irks me no end (and that's an understatement), which was demonstrated again.

Week after week (sadly with few exceptions) Brown leads with tributes to British fallen soldiers. This rightly was heard in respectful silence. Then usually follows a planted Labour question after which is Cameron's turn. He begins with a tribute also and this was again heard in silence.

However...

When Nick Clegg (Lib Dem Leader) rises, jeering starts. Clegg is clearly held in contempt by other MPs and often looks hopelessly out of his depth, and so this is understandable knock-about fun.

But it is obvious that Clegg will begin with his own tribute, as the leader of the third main party, so it should be heard in silence from the start. It was not. The jeering did subside eventually, amid audible sustained sounds of 'shh' by other MPs, but rarely are Clegg's tributes heard in complete silence.

It is a small detail but one that for me speaks volumes about the MP's real priorities.