Happy New Year: Laying The Foundations Of EU Exit

Play off everyone against each other so that you have more avenues of action open to you.
Read more at: http://www.azquotes.com/author/7010-Howard_Hughes

While the dishonesty of the legacy media, particularly regarding EU matters, has never been in doubt, 2015 at least demonstrated that if nothing else the prospect of a referendum on the UK's membership has really smoked them out. Despite information freely available on the internet their determination to live in an unreal bubble continues regardless.

In this context we can expect much empty noise in 2016 from the legacy media on the possibility of a 2016 referendum, particularly regarding one being held in June. Media speculation will continue despite Electoral Commission recommendations to the contrary and the hosting of Euro football 2016 championships in June which all but rules it out. There is also another reason which rules out a June 2016 referendum and we will address this in a piece shortly.

With a referendum almost certain to be held in late 2017, 2016 is the year where one of the important aspects of 2016 is to lay "the sound, intellectual foundations on which an effective public campaign can be based". Without foundations we will be left with the usual eurosceptic platitudes which have a decades long proven record of failure and will compound our defeat.

Another importance of 2016 is to undermine Vote Leave Ltd as a serious contender for the official designation. Not only is Vote Leave making a serious mess of the referendum campaign, and its players' intentions have ulterior motives but it does not appear serious regarding exit - as Mr Bexit notes:

Although not perfect and in need of some gravitas, the 'Leave.EU' group formed by Arron Banks, is genuinely committed to Britain leaving the EU completely and for good. Therefore they are allies in this fight.

The same cannot be said of the Matthew Elliott/Dominic Cummings money making venture, 'Vote Leave'. The group is populated at its highest levels by people professing to be 'eurosceptic' but who want Britain to remain in the EU as long as there are reforms. 

We saw further evidence of this yesterday when we see this tweet from the remarkably quiet "campaigner of his generation", Matthew Elliott:

Suzanne Evans, a former Conservative councillor has joined what is an EU "reform" campaign. Further concerns are raised when we see Evans' interview in the Telegraph in March 2015:

Asked “if you could negotiate reform you were happy with would you stay in?” Miss Evans replied: “Yes probably.”

She continued: “But I don’t think that is going to happen - that is the problem. If we could reform the EU that would be wonderful, but unfortunately this is an organisation that just won’t reform.”

With Matthew Elliott being on record as say that "if the Government gets two-tier Europe, we're very much in? And reform is exactly what Cameron will deliver - reform in the form of a two-tier Europe by Associate Membership. So would Suzanne Evans say "yes, probably" to this scenario?

It's a position where Evans repeatedly has been reluctant to give a direct answer to that question on twitter and has failed to distance herself from either her own remarks or those of Matthew Elliott. We can only, therefore, draw our own conclusions.

Winning is going to be hard enough without our own side being undermined by a campaign doing Cameron's bidding. They must be stopped. But with the media on their side it is going to have to be up to us.

We have a once in a lifetime opportunity to correct a historic mistake, 2016 allows us to lay the foundations in preparation of a 2017 poll.

And on that note I wish all my readers a happy new year.

EU Referendum: Another Reason Why June 2016 Poll Is Unlikely

Despite frequent articles from journalists of the legacy media suggesting there could be a referendum as soon as June 2016, the Electoral Commission has made it perfectly clear (page 17) this cannot be possible as ten months must elapse between Royal Assent of the Referendum Bill and the poll.

The Electoral Commission recommends a six-month gap between passing of the law and the start of the referendum campaign. If then the referendum campaign includes designation, the combined campaign period would need to be four months, (page 6). Four months plus the six-month gap gives us the ten months.

With the Referendum Bill unlikely to receive Royal Assent before Christmas and the recommendation of a ten month window, as highlighted by this blog and EU Referendum, all but rules out a 2016 poll and certainly it rules out a June 2016 poll.

The Electoral Commission is a statutory body and thus its recommendations can be subject to judicial review. Recommendations have to be taken seriously as evident by its statutory advice over the referendum question change. The lack of reference to the Electoral Commission's recommendations by the UK media does bring into question its integrity and its less than candid nature.

Yet in addition to the Electoral Commission recommendations, another factor comes into play regarding a June 2016 referendum and it is one which has a more political significance than a legal one.

June 2016 is when UEFA is hosting its football championships in France. The draw, which involved three of the four Home Nations was made on Saturday, where one of the fixtures will be England versus Wales. Here then we will have a month of football in European wide tournament held in France - an EU member state which is a crucial and pivotal part of the EU.

With media build up to a tournament involving England it would seem inconceivable that Cameron is going to dump a referendum on the UK during a month long celebration of football particularly when a significant number of the electorate will have priorities more focused in a warm month on football, beer and barbecues.

A referendum held in these circumstances would almost certainly impact on turnout, and the results could be heavily influenced by how successful, or indeed not, the Home Nations performed during the tournament. Cameron would not want the referendum result to be influenced on the uncertainties of the mood of the nation over the fortunes of the unpredictability of football.

How a football tournament can influence politics can be seen during the debate on Scottish devoltuion in the 1970s:

The sharp rise in nationalist support, which registered in the first of the two general elections of 1974, prompted the Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, to make a commitment to devolution.

On June 22 Labour's Scottish executive met to ratify the Downing Street proposals on devolution. Unfortunately this was also the day of the Scotland V Yugoslavia World Cup football match and only 11 members turned up. Most of those who stayed away to watch the football were pro-devolution. This gave the anti-devolutionists their chance to throw out the proposals.

Perhaps learning the lesson we see four years later, in 1978, that the Hamilton by-election was moved to Wednesday 31st May 1978 as the opening game of the 1978 World Cup was on the Thursday 1st June. This was the last time a by-election was not held on a Thursday.

In addition to Euro 2016, we see that a month later in August the 2016 Olympic games will be held in Brazil (and the Paralympics in September). Following on from a media narrative on how England and the other Home Nations have conducted themselves, attention will then turn to the Olympics with the lead up consisting of headlines of variations on the obligatory theme of whether the stadia and infrastructure has been built yet.

2016 will be a summer of sport. With a Prime Minister having such a weak hand in terms of his EU referendum it's very unlikely he is going to risk having his message overwhelmed by a narrative concerned with other priorities.