Tuesday, 17 June 2014

UKIP: Losing Us The Referendum

This from PoliticalBettting highlights the latest poll on a possible EU referendum, the "in camp" have moved to an 8 point lead:

Combined with the "status quo" effect, the 'outers' are currently going to lose - and are going to lose heavily. A referendum doesn't come under subjective marking where there are points for "artistic impression", as in ice skating. Instead it will be decided by Boolean outcomes - we either win or we don't.

And let's not forget that YouGov were the most accurate pollster when it came to predicting the Euro elections.

Despite receiving millions of EU money UKIP since 1999, via its MEPs, still fails to come up with a coherent exit policy or indeed any kind of research department that can counter the 'establishment'. And this is the result - a majority of the UK population wishing to remain EU members.

UKIP is rapidly becoming the enemy of EU exit....


  1. Two large factors in this are the people who would vote to stay in given reforms and the status quo effect.

    Both are on dubious foundations because the EU does not want to be reformed into a free trade area and the status quo isn't static, it's a drift toward more political integration.

    Both sides are trying to influence a manipulable but quite decisive section of the electorate. The in side has the trump cards with having the political establishment, the BBC etc onside. The level of debate and knowledge seems to have been kept deliberately infantile. e.g. the current brouhaha over whether Juncker gets the job of President of the EU Commission.

    I'd agree that UKIP has not put the effort into killing the FUD or having a thought through strategy on achieving its major objective; far too much emotion and too little thought. It certainly hasn't spawned anything with the clout of Open Europe, set up to peddle the idea of EU reform, and quoted as an authority on all things EU.

    I'm not so sure that UKIP have become the enemy of EU exit. Party politics is a messy and inexact business, and far from a question of having all the best arguments and so you win.

  2. Quote:

    Ukip MEPs are going to fight to get UK out of the EU - Nigel Farage
    Date 14/06/2014 11:16


    I assume you have UKIP link, and posted this from my research.

    I trust you are also aware of how government of day the media influenced and deceived the British public in 1975 referendum.
    This information is all in public domain.

    Like it or not the only Reason Cameron tabled the motion for EU in/out referendum (should he win a majority in 2015 GE) was due to UKIP.

    I also advise you checkout LabourList who also are advising Milliband to in clude an EU in/out referendum. Again, it is thanks to UKIP.

    All of this to quench the UKIP surge.

    It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out we have a great deal to thank UKIP for.

    As for EU in/out referendum, I like what poll shows. I also know that the poll that counts is the one actual eU in/out referendum. This battle is not over, not by a long shot.

    On personal note, welcome back.

    Phoenix One UK/Maverick

    1. I certainly don't deny UKIP have helped bring issues to the table such as immigration and an EU referendum. However my problem is that having possibly forced the Tories to concede to one there is no plan to win it.

      My deep concern is that UKIP's absence of a plan, (and indeed any coherent plan by the 'outers') will lead to us to losing the referendum. In this sense having a referendum and losing is worse than not having a referendum at all, because a lost referendum means the issue can be 'parked'.

  3. People who want to get out of the EU don't need to win the referendum: just having our votes counted is victory enough. The status quo with effect to the EU cannot be sustained with 20-30% of the population wanting to get out...whatever the consequences.

    This is an absolutist issue. It's not like the NHS, or tax, or immigration even, where we are dealing with shades of opinion. After the referendum everything is reset, every issue has to be re-calibrated, every policy re-examined...and every one of us who voted to leave listened to...in effect we will hold a veto, and I suggest we use it wisely.

  4. You forget, Cameron (or indeed Milliband) will only offer us a referendum if they think they'll win, so far it's too close to call, so we won't get one.

    1. If Cameron wins the next election (and it will probably be with a small majority) then we are almost certain to have a referendum in 2017.

      Obviously we are aware of "cast iron" but he has a rebellious backbench which consists of those who intensely dislike him, those who want a referendum and a mixture of the two. He is likely therefore to face a vote of no-confidence if he fails deliver.

      Ultimately we have to plan for a referendum being called. Preparation is everything and such planning won't be wasted should no referendum be called.

    2. QM nails it.

      They fixed the AV referendum, they'll fix the in-out referendum. The only reason they haven't fixed the Scotland referendum is because they genuinely don't really care either way.

    3. And if they thought the fix wasn't going to work, they'd find some reason to put it off, and if that didn't work, just say it wasn't going to happen, even at the price of destroying the Conservative party.

  5. There's no doubt that UKIP are responsible for the talk of a referendum from the Conservatives and more mutedly from Labour.

    If they hadn't been 'stealing' Tory voters and threatening to make the electoral waters muddier (the collapse of the LibDems has helped), Cameron wouldn't have even approached the subject of a referendum and would have done as little as possible, by way of the Dance of the Seven Veils, to shut up the Tories' eurosceptic tendency - they might have been shown a blurred photograph of the dance. We'd have seen no referendum lock, no review of competences, no europlastics and Fresh Start and no circus act over Juncker.

    Whether UKIP can exploit that is another question.

    I think it's unlikely the Tories will win a clear majority at the next GE.
    If they did, on current polls and on the safe assumption we'd have a tidal wave of bullshit to persuade us to stay in, the result would be in.

    I think it's far better the issue remains a festering abscess which isn't lanced and adds to the pressure for us to be escorted to the door by the rest of the EU. I'm convinced we'll be pushed as much as jump. This will probably hinge on something silly and based on half truths, which will have all the people who've been putting forward closely argued points over the years either tearing their hair out, or maintaining a discrete silence and thanking God for deliverance.

    My fear is the Tories winning the next GE and successfully doing a Wilson, in which case being removed from the EU and establishing a more democratic and responsive form of governance in the UK, would be set back immeasurably.

  6. If in the end it needs an armed insurrection to regain our freedom so be it

  7. "Despite receiving millions of EU money UKIP since 1999, via its MEPs, still fails to come up with a coherent exit policy or indeed any kind of research department that can counter the 'establishment'. And this is the result - a majority of the UK population wishing to remain EU members."

    That's probably because most UKIP MEPs don't actually give a shit about getting the UK out, they just want to keep collecting fat EU paychecks.