Wednesday, 28 November 2012

No Chance...

If you're going to do a hoax, at least make it plausible. Whatever one thinks of Blair he would know better than to 'campaign for an EU President'. No such position exists - it would be for the President of the European Council - currently held by Rompuy-Pumpy. (The EU has copious Presidents). Van Rompuy's Presidency actually ends in 2014.

That said looking at Blair's speech today, one should not be surprised that he is pitching for the vacant position in 2016. The position of President of the European Council is held for a once-renewable term of two and a half years, which means by 2016, if true that Blair wants to run he would be facing an EU approved incumbent. And that is not his only obstacle. He has others, which prevented him winning last time, namely:
  • Making the European Council a formal EU body in the Lisbon Treaty (meant only as a temporary institution in 1974 - what in the EU is temporary invariably becomes permanent) was a mistake in EU terms. It created a power conflict between itself and the EU Commission (the executive). Thus it's in the EU Commision's interest to ensure that any candidate for European Council does not pose a threat. In the appointment of Baroness Ashton they got it right, in Rompuy-Pumpy less so (still-waters run deep). Like it or not Blair has presence on the international stage, so no way will they allow him to upstage the EU Commission as a consequence. No chance.

  • Then there's the legacy of the Iraq war - deeply unpopular in Europe, cheese eating surrender monkeys anyone? The EU is largely a French project, so again no chance.

  • Also, and very importantly in this instance, Blair is British. We're the awkward partner, the outsider, the one who is not in the Euro the one who are not 'good Europeans'. Given also that a referendum and frantic talk of 'a new relationship' is on its way - around 2016 - that the EU would want a Brit in charge of the European Council aint gonna happen? No chance.
I don't normally give betting advice on this blog, but if Blair ever throws his hat in for 2016, lay against him winning with everything you've got on Betfair. It's easy money - like taking candy away from a kid.


  1. He would never get in if he tried, the rest of the EU would see to that.

    Sure they all lead him on so that they would get the Lisbon treaty through, but the second it was signed they deserted him.

    Backstabbing Blair was one of the few good things the EU done.

  2. @Jim Indeed, I agree that the EU will prevent him from getting in.

    However, and forgive me for disagreeing with your backstabbing point...I wanted Blair to be President of the European Council. Imagine the boost it would give the 'out' camp.

    Booted out at home as PM but ends up unelected as a figurehead of the EU. Marvelous. It would have done our cause no end of good. Sometimes we have to sacrifice the 'Rook' to win checkmate.

  3. hmmm. Ok good point, though rumpy pumpy is hardy a reason to want to stay in, he does not present the same urgency to get out that Blair would.

  4. The traitor blair would probably have won the last election if he had stood and would probably beat cast iron in the next one too.
    The voting public are cretinous oafs. Interested only in corrie, pizza and sleb gossip.

  5. The thing about Rumpy TBF is that we made a very good choice, we voted for a winner...

    ...In fact he is so good, we will probably vote him back in 2014...

    Exciting times.